How US should deter China’s N-ambitions

After decades of sustaining a relatively modest nuclear arsenal, China is moving swiftly to build more and better doomsday weapons. The trend would be dangerous at any time. But given the precipitous decline in relations with the US, a catastrophe is becoming all too likely. Both sides need to restore stability to this relationship before the world faces a devastating new nuclear-arms race.
China’s amped-up nuclear ambitions have been hard to miss in recent months. Satellite images suggest it has been building fields of new intercontinental ballistic missile silos. It has deployed ICBMs that are harder to target and faster to launch. It is bolstering its fleet
of ballistic-missile submarines
and developing nuclear-capable bombers. More exotic weapons,
including a hypersonic glider it
reportedly tested over the summer, might one day evade US missile
defenses. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley described the tests as “very close” to a Sputnik moment. The Pentagon predicts that China’s stockpile of operational warheads will more than double by 2030.
These advances are potentially destabilising, especially given the murkiness of China’s nuclear goals and doctrines. There is ambiguity about its pledge never to use nuclear weapons first, as well as talk of shifting some missiles to hair-trigger, “launch on warning” status. The mixing of conventional and nuclear assets on bases and even on some missiles could lead to disaster in a conflict if an adversary couldn’t tell whether it was facing nuclear attack or not.
As the size and sophistication of China’s arsenal grows, moreover, the odds of such a conflict are rising. Chinese leaders may feel more comfortable waging a conventional war over Taiwan if they’re confident they’ve achieved a nuclear stalemate with the United States. Their refusal to even discuss these issues officially, let alone engage in arms-control talks, only deepens mistrust.
In responding to this new reality, the US will need to strike a delicate balance. On the one hand, it needs to maintain its own deterrent. President Joe Biden’s administration should continue bipartisan efforts to upgrade the Navy’s fleet of ballistic-missile submarines, while the Air Force should work on developing unmanned means of delivering nuclear weapons, including drones and air-launched missiles, in addition to buying B-21 bombers.

—Bloomberg