‘Great lockdown’ to shrink global GDP by 3% in 2020

Bloomberg

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if coronavirus lingers or returns. In its first World Economic Outlook report since spread of Covid-19 and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.
That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.
While the fund anticipated growth of 5.8% next year, which would be strongest in records dating back to 1980, it cautioned risks are tilted to downside. Much depends on the longevity of the pandemic, its effect on activity and related stresses in financial and commodity markets, it said.
Even if the IMF’s forecast proves accurate, it said output in both advanced and emerging markets would undershoot their pre-virus trends through 2021, seemingly dashing any lingering hopes of a V-shaped economic rebound from the health emergency.
In a further sign of pessimism, the IMF sketched out three alternative scenarios in which the virus lasted longer than expected, returned in 2021 or both. A lengthier pandemic would wipe 3% off GDP this year compared to the baseline, while protraction plus a resumption next year would mean 8% less output than projected in 2021, it said.
“This crisis is like no other,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a foreword to its semi-annual report. “Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock.”
As with the virus’s reach, the economic hit is sweeping. In the U.S., gross domestic product is expected to contract 5.9%, compared with a 2% expansion in its last global outlook in January. It may grow 4.7% next year, the IMF said. The euro area will probably shrink 7.5% in 2020 and rxpand 4.7% in 2021, it said.
“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF said. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”
The grim projections are a stark reversal from the IMF’s outlook less than two months ago. On Feb. 19, the fund told Group of 20 finance chiefs that “global growth appears to be bottoming out.” Three days later, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicted the virus would likely cut just 0.1 percentage point from the fund’s global growth forecast for this year, although she acknowledged “more dire scenarios” were being studied.
The fund sees advanced economies shrinking the most, contracting 6.1%. Emerging-market and developing economies will see a 1% drop. Growth in China and India will decelerate but their economies will still manage to expand 1.2% and 1.9% respectively, the fund said.
The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of this year and that containment measures can be gradually wound down.
Global trade volume in goods and services will probably tumble 11% this year, the fund said.