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The list of candidates hoping to take on Emmanuel Macron for the French presidency in April is getting long. About 30 people have thrown their hats in the ring, including Paris’ Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo, far-right leader Marine Le Pen and former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.
Similar numbers have been seen in previous elections, and the ranks will thin eventually. But with so many self-proclaimed dissidents and outsider personalities borrowing from Macron’s disruptive anti-establishment playbook, the overall effect of having this many contenders may end up helping him stay in power.
A lot can happen between now and April, but the crowded field of anti-Macron candidates is currently eating itself rather than its target. None of the challengers are projected to beat the president in the first round of voting or run-off. (Macron meanwhile has yet to officially announce his run.) In the Macron era, personality politics continues to bury establishment party lines and ideologies. Le Pen has always been the main threat for Macron, and she’s trying to become more palatable to the average French voter — dropping unpopular policies like quitting the euro, glossing over her past contentious views and seeking to detoxify her party. And yet all eyes are on Eric Zemmour, a far-right pundit with no party machinery to speak of, whose potential candidacy would cut Le Pen’s support to below 20%, a Harris poll finds. Macron would still win the first and second rounds either way.
On the Left, Anne Hidalgo has for months been tipped as a bridge between social justice and eco-conscious politics after Covid-19. Yet she currently polls below 10% and there is widespread skepticism that she can get rivals, from far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon to the prospective Green Party pick, to rally behind her. The Left’s own version of Zemmour is also hovering: Arnaud Montebourg, a former minister mixing interventionist economics with a more restrictive approach on immigration, has already launched his Macron-style political movement.
In such a fragmented political landscape, with French voters increasingly leaning conservative on issues like immigration and security while supporting Macron’s “whatever-it-takes†approach to pandemic management, the center-right is seen as a vital election battleground. But even here there’s squabbling: Xavier Bertrand, the most convincing candidate, is refusing to take part in a primary that would weed out rivals.
The confusion is made worse by candidates happy to flee the center to try to whip up the party base. Consider Michel Barnier’s hawkish rhetoric on immigration, viewed with raised eyebrows in his old stomping ground of Brussels, where he faced off against UK Brexiters.
All of this is no doubt music to Macron’s ears. His own party, a creation that blended political neophytes and experienced politicians in a mix of the populist and the technocratic, has failed to broaden its appeal beyond its narrow white-collar, pro-European base. And while he is seen as being a convincing leader and good pandemic manager, a majority of French public opinion is unhappy with his performance overall. Still, Macron is more popular than his predecessors were at this stage of their presidency, and a brightening economic outlook combined with a fragmented opposition would be to his advantage come election day.
—Bloomberg