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Long-haul trucking has always been a tough job that keeps drivers away from their families for days and sometimes weeks. It’s no wonder there’s a perennial shortage of them. The pool of available drivers is aging — the median age is about 46 and climbing — and the industry is struggling to attract younger people to get behind the wheel of a big rig.
Critics contend the problem is rooted in pay. Raise truckers’ wages, they say, and more will be willing to hit the road, even with the sacrifices to home life. A survey by the American Trucking Associations published, however, suggested the problem goes beyond compensation, especially after Covid-19 unleashed a pandemic of self-reflection on life’s priorities. The job description is stark: Live out of a truck for days while missing your children’s games or school plays.
The good news for drivers is that salaries are going up. The ATA study showed that annual pay for long-haul truckers rose to almost $70,000 in 2021, an 18% jump from 2019. The more interesting nugget from the survey was that the higher pay per mile enabled drivers to work less and be at home more while making the same amount of money, said Bob Costello, the trade group’s chief economist. “The idea that it’s only pay†that is keeping truckers off the road “is wrong,†Costello said. So higher pay isn’t going to necessarily translate into enough drivers to fill demand.
The shortage of truck drivers is now more than 80,000, and that’s expected to double by 2030, according to the ATA. At the same time, trucking freight rates including fuel surcharges jumped to an all-time high in January on the spot market as demand outstripped capacity. Higher pay has also put upward pressure on rates.
There is an obvious long-term solution to both these problems: driverless trucks. But only if the industry gets off on the right foot with maximum transparency on its operations. If autonomous trucks are introduced prudently, they can improve highway safety and continue to promote the small-business ownership that dominates the trucking industry.
They are already on the road. Companies like Aurora Innovation Inc., TuSimple Holdings Inc., Kodiak Robotics Inc. and several others are testing driverless trucks on US highways with a safety driver still behind the wheel.
Some of them, such as Aurora, are planning “driver out†operations in less than two years. The goal is laudable: Increase highway safety while pushing down the cost of moving freight. The logical entry point of these driverless trucks will be in the long-haul market, where trucking companies struggle the most to find workers. The gains from autonomous trucks go beyond the salary of a driver. For example, TuSimple said last year that its system saved more than 13% on fuel alone in a 30-month testing period with United Parcel Service Inc., mostly because the trucks drove at a steady pace between 55 and 68 miles an hour. More important, the productivity gains are exponential because the trucks can operate practically around the clock and aren’t limited to the hours a driver can put in each day. And if accidents were to drop even into the hundreds instead of the tens of thousands that occur on US highways every year, the savings on insurance would be huge.
The bar for safety will be set incredibly high, and the only way the autonomous trucking companies will gain the confidence and support from the public is with an enormous amount of transparency on their operations.
—Bloomberg