Don’t give Putin a veto over Nato expansion

Talks between Russia, the US and Europe have hit an impasse over Russia’s demand that Nato agree not to admit any new members. So far, the Biden administration and European leaders have rejected such terms. In so doing, they risk giving Russian President Vladimir Putin an excuse to invade Ukraine. But caving to Putin’s blackmail would be even worse.
Putin has long accused the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) of attempting to “encircle” Russia by expanding the alliance to the edge of its territory. Yet only five of 14 countries that neighbor Russia are Nato members, covering just 6% of the Russian border. Nato has added just two members in the last decade: Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020, neither of which threatens vital Russian interests. In 2008, the alliance made a nonbinding pledge that Ukraine and Georgia could eventually become members, but didn’t offer them what’s known as a Membership Action Plan, a necessary step for advancing the accession process.
Even so, Putin wants written guarantees that the alliance will forswear further expansion and reduce troop and weapon deployments in Eastern European member states. During meetings with US officials aimed at defusing the situation in Ukraine, Russia has remained adamant that it considers any mention of Nato expansion intolerable.
In a news conference, President Joe Biden said that membership for Ukraine was “not very likely” in the near term, given how much more work the country needs to do to strengthen its democratic institutions. He also suggested that current member states disagree about the matter. Biden’s comments may well reflect reality, but they were nevertheless
ill-considered — conveying weakness and disunity at a time when the
alliance should stand firm.
Under Nato’s open-door treaty, countries have the sovereign right to pursue membership if they so choose. Putin’s opposition to Nato expansion is rooted in his nostalgia for the USSR and a desire to reestablish Russian control of former Soviet states. Giving him any say over the size and shape of Nato in exchange for pulling his troops back from Ukraine’s border would be a catastrophic strategic error. It would shred Western credibility; consign Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of influence; and leave Nato members on Russia’s periphery, such as the Baltic states, even more vulnerable. It would also embolden China to intensify intimidation campaigns against smaller nations to exact security
concessions from the US.
US and European officials should stress that while Nato is not actively advancing Ukraine’s candidacy, the process will not be canceled at Putin’s behest — and — and that future decisions about expansion will depend on Russia’s conduct towards its neighbors. Biden should back leaders in Finland and Sweden and endorse proposals for their countries to gain quick membership in Nato if Russia invades Ukraine. The message to Putin should be unmistakable: Any further escalation in Ukraine will
result in a larger and better-armed Nato.
—Bloomberg