Dollar sinks to lowest level since May 2018

Bloomberg

The dollar sinks to its lowest level since May 2018 on concern that the world’s biggest economy will struggle to regain momentum amid a standoff over further virus relief and as infections continue to mount.
The greenback has now erased most of the gains it built on the back of US-China trade tensions that started heating up around two years ago, fueling worries about global growth prospects. This time investors see the US as the potential laggard amid questions over the government’s response to the pandemic. The euro climbed to a two-year high, extending its advance since last month’s landmark European Union stimulus package brightened the region’s prospects relative to the US.
The dollar has been on the defensive since mid-year, with US lawmakers unable to agree on measures to support the economy’s recovery from the pandemic, and with the nation’s real yields dropping to multiyear lows. On top of all that, investors’ attention is turning to the November presidential election and the uncertainty that may bring.
“Momentum is on the bears’ side now, and until the US can get the virus under better control, I think the dollar remains under pressure,” said Win Thin, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.6%, dropping for a fifth straight session and bringing its 2020 decline to around 1.7%.
Wagers on dollar losses by hedge funds and other large speculators have been building, but have yet to reach the levels seen in 2017 and 2018, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
“Broader positioning against the USD is not overly stretched,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Scotiabank. Investors and speculators are “only just starting to embrace the short USD story. There is room for this move to run.”
The dollar failed to gain much traction even after a report showed US housing starts surged in July amid record-low interest rates. The resilience in that corner of the economy comes as roughly 15 million Americans remain out of work in the coronavirus’s wake.
With some investors still skeptical about the durability of the recovery and the Federal Reserve buying billions of dollars of Treasuries to support markets, benchmark US yields remain not far above record lows. With their premium over global peers narrowing, the dollar’s appeal is dimming on that front too.
The 10-year US real yield, which is the rate after stripping out inflation, is now only about 30 basis points above its German counterpart. That’s the smallest spread since 2014.