Covid’s fifth wave shows us how to live with virus

Covid cases are on the rise in several European countries. Upticks are visible again in France, Italy and the UK. Infection rates in both Austria and Germany eclipse previous waves of the virus (based on cases per million). China is grappling with new highs in terms of case counts. The US may soon follow. This fifth wave of the virus is likely to be mercifully short-lived in many areas, but the picture varies around the world. This divergence gives us something of a report card on the efficacy of the Covid policies in place.
The new wave is mostly being driven by countries removing pandemic restrictions right around when the more transmissible omicron BA.2 subvariant began to spread. In the UK, the end of mask mandates on public transport and required self-isolation if infected has led many people to drop their cautionary behaviour and allowed BA.2 infections to gather pace.
From this week, Britain has made 5 million older and more vulnerable residents eligible for a fourth jab. Health Secretary Sajid Javid has suggested over-50s may be offered a fourth shot from the autumn. That may be sensible, but just as with earlier boosters, any effect will likely be short-lived — we’ll see a three- to four-month reduction in cases, rather than a fundamental change.
Data from Denmark and Sweden, the two countries where BA.2 got an early foothold, suggest that waning immunity isn’t so much driving the rise in infections as BA.2’s superior ability to infect people. Denmark experienced an early, massive omicron wave; that arguably provided a high level of immunity against BA.1 and BA.2, preventing its resurgence. But even Sweden, which had a smaller wave of BA.2 infections, is not seeing a bounce in infections now. Both have similar vaccination coverage. The infection curve would look very different if what we were seeing was waning immunity rather than the arrival of BA.2.
Although hospitalisations from Covid are rising in the UK and other places where BA.2 has spread fast, the rate of hospitalisations and ICU admissions per case remains low and there is no evidence so far that the BA.2 subvariant is leading to any increased severity of illness. Javid said that the government has not changed its view and noted that 60% of those in the hospital with Covid had not been hospitalised for Covid, suggesting many are incidental cases.

—Bloomberg