Covid-19: You can’t handle total lockdown

Second waves of coronavirus outbreaks may not mean reimposing blanket restrictions on activity in Asia. The region’s economies, which have seen more than half a century of growth grind to a halt, won’t be able to handle it. That means the future will be speckled with pocket-size lockdowns.
Leaders are wary of repeating the huge contractions in commerce that came with complete closures. Singapore, better placed than many of its neighbours thanks to four stimulus packages and substantial financial reserves, saw a dramatic decline in gross
domestic product in the second
quarter. The city-state’s economy shrank at a whopping 41.2% annualised rate from the previous quarter, in the first major data release since the election. The dismal reading is likely to be the first among many double-digit declines expected across the region in coming weeks. For some months, Singapore has been warning its residents that business conditions could get worse before they improve. The government has been taking the reopening gradually; the central business district is far from full capacity. Borders are sealed to most travellers and fines await those who transgress social-distancing laws.
A small, fairly open economy that’s a center for trade and multinational companies, Singapore has always been acutely vulnerable to ebbs and flows of global commerce. “We expect the recovery to be a slow and uneven journey, as external demand continues to be weak and countries battle the second and third waves of outbreaks by reinstating localised lockdowns or stricter safe-distancing measures,” Singapore’s trade and industry minister, Chan Chun Sing, said in a Facebook post.
Across the region, governments will be introducing variations of targeted lockdowns in response to recent spikes. Chunks of Melbourne have been shuttered and Victoria, the state encompassing the city, closed its borders. Other parts of the country remain a going concern, though the northern state of Queensland has listed several zip codes in Sydney as hotspots that will require visitors from those suburbs to quarantine before entry. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Australia’s effective jobless rate is about 13.3%, rather than the official 7.1%; he doesn’t sound too keen on drawing the curtains on the entire country.
In the Philippines, metropolitan Manila is partially reopening even as other parts of the archipelago are walled off. Japanese officials, meanwhile, have avoided calling for broader restrictions in response to a Tokyo outbreak that’s concentrated in nightclubs and a couple of other clusters. Authorities have assured that the medical system is not under strain. Speaking in the northern island of Hokkaido, Chief Secretary Yoshihide Suga called the infections a “Tokyo problem,” according to Japanese media.

—Bloomberg