China’s smothering of HK has Democrats preparing for jail

Bloomberg

A year ago, Hong Kong protesters effectively killed an extradition bill that would subject them to criminal prosecution under China’s legal system for the first time — a victory that inspired them to demand real elections.
Now Beijing has unwound all those gains, and gone much further in eroding Hong Kong’s autonomy. Details of a proposed national security law released over the weekend showed that Chinese authorities will have the right to directly prosecute residents for still vaguely defined offenses to national security, a provision used in the mainland to jail journalists, human-rights lawyers, religious pastors and others deemed to subvert the country’s leaders.
“We would have to become like mainland Chinese human rights activists,” said Eric Lai, vice convener of the Civil Human Rights Front, which organised some of the largest protests in Hong Kong last year against the extradition bill. “We may face criminal charges for everything we do.”
With the new laws, Chinese President Xi Jinping is making a calculated bet that he has more to gain than lose from snuffing out political dissent in the former British colony. The extent of the economic fallout in the city — already reeling from last year’s protests and the pandemic — largely depends on what punitive measures US President Donald Trump takes, whether other nations also act and if multinationals leave town.
For Hong Kong’s democracy camp, the path forward is uncertain. The year began with high hopes that they might win a majority in Hong Kong’s Legislative Council for the first time when elections are held in September, building on a landslide victory in polls for local district councils in late 2019.
But the imposition of the national security law shows that Beijing will circumvent any institution in Hong Kong that doesn’t comply with its wishes, whether it be the legislature, the courts or the chief executive.
And while mainland authorities have in recent years already begun encroaching on the autonomy it promised to Hong Kong before it took over from the British in 1997, the scope of speech deemed illegal could now increase dramatically under the new law.
“There will be a lot of restrictions, there will be a lot of uncertainties as to who will be arrested, who will get disqualified in the upcoming election, there are a lot of question marks,” said Alvin Yeung, a pro-democracy lawmaker. “But again, if you pick any ordinary Hong Kong citizen, they will say ‘Yes it’s difficult but we will not easily give up.’”
Hong Kong’s protest movement has long been resilient in the face of increased Chinese assertiveness, sustaining weekly rallies last year until the Covid-19 pandemic prompted residents to stay indoors. Although Hong Kong’s government has the virus largely under control, it has maintained restrictions on public gatherings that have deterred demonstrators from gathering.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam, whose popularity cratered last year, has sought to reassure the public and the international business community that the law won’t disrupt Hong Kong’s legal system. In a statement on Saturday, her government said the law “will only target an extremely small minority of people,” and emphasized that freedoms “of the overwhelming majority” of Hong Kong residents would be respected.
So far, however, most people in the city aren’t convinced. A poll released by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program on May 29 showed a majority of residents and 96% of democracy supporters opposed the measure. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong said more than 80% of the companies it surveyed were concerned or very concerned about the legislation.