China’s exports resilient as global demand recovers

Bloomberg

China’s overseas shipments held up in April amid recovering global demand and as the threat of a trade war with the US dissipated.
Exports rose 8 percent in dollar terms from a year earlier, less than the 11.3 percent increase economists projected in Bloomberg survey Imports increased 11.9 percent, compared with an estimate for 18 percent growth. Trade surplus widened to $38.05 billion
China’s export outlook has improved on recovering global demand and as the threat of a trade war with its biggest trading partner fizzled. The International Monetary Fund boosted its estimate of global growth this year, brightening the outlook for external demand. Still, both exports and imports missed economists’ estimates, adding to recent evidence that growth may be pulling back after a strong first quarter.
“The latest numbers are consistent with signs of a slowdown from April business surveys,” Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a report. “If the peak for 2017 growth is already in the past, China’s space for progress on a challenging deleveraging agenda will be limited. Diminished scope for higher interest rates will also add pressure for yuan weakness.”
“The current global demand recovery is fragile and remains susceptible to setbacks,” Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, wrote in a note. “We expect China’s import growth to continue to ease on slower real estate activity momentum and less accommodative macro policy in China.”