China should prepare to live with Covid-19

More than two years into the Covid-19 pandemic, China is the last major nation pursuing a zero-tolerance strategy, seeking to extinguish outbreaks as soon as individual cases emerge. That policy looks increasingly unsustainable. Chinese leaders should prepare now for a change in course.
The emergence of the highly transmissible omicron variant is already testing the government’s approach. Local officials have had to adopt strict measures to control emerging infections — locking down entire cities, limiting travel, and mass-testing millions of people. Some 20 million Chinese were under some form of lockdown this month. Tianjin, one of the world’s largest ports, recently forced its entire population to undergo tests, disrupting business and leading some foreign-owned factories to suspend operations.
Omicron has nevertheless reached all of China’s biggest cities, including Beijing, which is hosting the Winter Olympics in a few weeks. Seven-day rolling averages have reached highs not seen since March 2020. Given how fast this strain spreads, the chances of China maintaining small case numbers are slim.
Over time, too, the costs of trying will mount dangerously. Public patience is already wearing thin; after overzealous lockdown measures in the city of Xi’an were blamed for at least two deaths and two miscarriages, anger at local officials erupted online. Uncertainty and travel curbs ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday have dampened consumer sentiment, contributing to a slowdown in growth. While the impact of factory closures remains limited and ports continue to operate, more widespread shutdowns would snarl supply chains and add to inflation worries globally.
Against this, authorities must weigh the costs of relaxing vigilance. Locally made vaccines have shown to be less effective against Covid-19 than Western ones; how well they’ll stand up to the Omicron variant remains to be seen. Even if they do prevent serious illness, a rapid wave of infections could severely strain the health-care system. China has only 2.7 nurses per 1,000 people, compared to 12.7 in Japan and 15.7 in the US.
Authorities should be using this time to rethink their entire approach to the virus. The first priority should be protecting essential workers and vulnerable populations with more effective boosters. China’s homegrown mRNA vaccines are still undergoing trials; results may not be available for months. In the meantime, Pfizer Inc.’s Chinese partner has been awaiting approval to distribute a mRNA shot since last summer. This is no time to stand on pride: Approving the Western-made shot would help bridge the gap until Chinese mRNA vaccines can be shown to be safe and effective.
At the same time, top officials should redirect their subordinates’ energies. Punishing local officials for not immediately stamping out small outbreaks will become increasingly unproductive. Instead, they should be tasked with building up hospital capacity and staffing, developing less disruptive quarantine and testing protocols, and otherwise improving
resilience in their jurisdictions.
In part, that means changing how ordinary Chinese view the threat from Covid-19. Rather than panicking over each new case, public-health officials should emphasise keeping risks in perspective.
—Bloomberg