Opinion

Brexit may save European growth after all

  For those of us troubled by Brexit, and for Europeans concerned about the survival of the wider European project, a much-awaited book by one of the world’s most renowned economic historians and an expert on long-run economic growth might, on the face of it, offer some light at the end of the tunnel. According to Joel Mokyr, Europe’s magisterial ...

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India could well be waging a counterproductive war on cash

  India is conducting a big test of the idea that getting rid of cash can help address crime and corruption. Unfortunately, it might achieve nothing more than a lot of inconvenience. Criminals and corrupt officials often conduct business in cash, because it’s hard to trace. So in a sense it’s logical to assume that abolishing cash will help reduce ...

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Get in the mood for retail forecasting follies

  It’s become a favorite holiday tradition around these parts: wait for the National Retail Federation annual holiday spending forecast each October, then write a few choice words about why their methodology is awful and their forecast track record is even worse. I overlooked the Federation’s Oct. 3 forecast this year, as the 2016 presidential election obscured everything else. That ...

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Global trade landscape set to undergo changes

  With US President-elect Donald Trump vowing on Tuesday to scrap the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the deal’s future hangs in the balance. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pointed out that TPP without the US would be “meaningless”. The US and Japan are the core members of TPP that encompasses 40% of the global economy. Trump’s announcement to abandon TPP ...

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Fund the Queen’s repairs. Don’t let Big Ben fall

  The UK government’s decision to allocate 369 million pounds ($460 million) to fund a 10-year refurbishment of Buckingham Palace should be welcomed. Unfortunately, the British public’s complicated relationship with both the Royal Family’s finances and the nation’s landmark buildings means there’s a storm of protest instead. And that in turn leaves another of the country’s iconic buildings in jeopardy. ...

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Dallas is where the jobs are growing

  In the early days of the current economic expansion, Texas led the way. That stopped being true a couple of years ago; according to state jobs data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, California has added the most payroll jobs (2.4 million) since employment bottomed out nationally in February 2010; Utah is the leader on a percentage ...

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Vladimir Putin is winning the French election

  Leonid Bershidsky While it’s unclear how well Russian President Vladimir Putin will get along with Donald Trump and his team of Republican hawks, it looks as though he has already won the French presidential election. The front-runner in the primary vote of the French center-right, Francois Fillon, is nearly as enthusiastic a Russophile as Marine Le Pen, leader of ...

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Merkel’s fourth election will be her toughest

  Angela Merkel’s announcement on Sunday that she will run for a fourth term as chancellor was hardly unexpected, given her role as the world’s foremost centrist, one of Europe’s last bulwarks against the hard right and a leader who doesn’t really have a credible rival in Germany. Yet she will probably face the toughest election of her career; victory ...

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Don’t count on a crash from a Trump trade war

  Talk of war is in the air — trade war! President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to label China a currency manipulator, and has floated the idea of imposing large tariffs on Chinese imports. This sort of policy is considered beyond the pale in mainstream economics and media circles. It is subjected to epithets like “protectionism” and “mercantilism.” Almost everyone ...

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Leaving the Paris climate accord won’t help anybody

  Come Jan. 20, President-elect Donald J. Trump will start carrying out his agenda. How does he expect to turn his promises into policy? Do his plans make sense? If not, what should he do? Finally, given the political realities of Washington, what’s most likely to happen? What he says he’ll do: Trump promises to pull the U.S. from last ...

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