Foreign-exchange markets are trying to determine what an era of tariffs and border taxes would mean for the value of the dollar. In textbook models, a border-adjustment tax could trigger an increase in the value of the real effective exchange rate (a measure of a country’s competitiveness once the nominal exchange rate — the currency traded on the spot ...
Read More »Opinion
What could go right for Europe?
2017 is set to be one of the most volatile years for politics in decades. Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands threaten to bring populists to power at the core of the euro zone. The European Union isn’t functioning, says George Soros. But not all political risk is bad. There’s the opportunity for positive change — especially in ...
Read More »Market liquidity is great, until it isn’t
In his confirmation hearing the other day, Treasury secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin used the word “liquidity†when talking about several financial regulatory policies. He echoed banks’ concern that the Volcker Rule — which prohibits banks from engaging in many kinds of trading — would reduce asset market liquidity. He also expressed support for the continued existence of Fannie Mae ...
Read More »Stephen Bannon’s dangerous populist revolution
At the red-hot center of President Trump’s first 10 days in office has been his strategist Stephen Bannon, who proclaims a global populist movement for ‘Judeo-Christian’ values and against extremism. Bannon is a passionate ideologue who is the intellectual center of the new administration. For nearly a decade he has been advertising his desire to turn America and the world ...
Read More »Apple’s glorious past casts pall on pedestrian present
Don’t get lulled into complacency. Everything is not fine in the Apple Inc. empire. On the heels of Apple’s first annual revenue decline in 15 years, the company on Tuesday posted a revenue gain of 3.3 percent in its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31. That was better than Wall Street’s recalibrated expectations, and Apple’s sizable profit margins expanded ...
Read More »Trump and the art of the Syrian peace deal
For almost half a decade, the world’s only superpower has mostly abdicated its role in helping to resolve the world’s most consequential conflict. Now former President Barack Obama’s excessive caution about Syria has given way to President Donald Trump’s unstrategic uncertainty. The question is whether this qualifies as an improvement. It’s certainly good news that Russia has invited the ...
Read More »Confusion, protests persist over Trump travel ban
US President Donald Trump’s immigration ban and curb on refugee admission sparked a global backlash. It is highly confusing and utterly condemnable. Refugees, visa holders and permanent US residents are all among those affected. On the other hand, Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly issued a statement declaring that the entry of green-card holders is in the national interest. He ...
Read More »The dream of cheap nuclear power is over now
For much of my life, I loved the idea of nuclear power. The science was so cool, futuristic and complicated, the power plants so vast and majestic. I devoured science-fiction novels like “Lucifer’s Hammer,†where a plucky nuclear entrepreneur restarts civilization after a comet almost wipes us out. I thought of accidents like Three Mile Island and even Chernobyl ...
Read More »India’s bad bank plan would be a $60bn mistake
With most of its state-run lending businesses resembling one giant bad bank, it’s puzzling why India keeps toying with the idea of setting up a new one. The government’s annual assessment of the economy even invokes Sherlock Holmes to make a fresh case for an asset reconstruction company within the public sector. Other schemes have not worked, years have ...
Read More »Deutsche Bank’s Russian scheme isn’t needed now
Deutsche Bank, for which fines have become almost a routine expense, has agreed to pay $630 million to end US and UK investigations into a scheme that helped wealthy Russians move $10 billion out of Russia. But those clients have little need for such a channel anymore: Capital outflow from Russia has slowed to a trickle. Between 2012 and ...
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