Opinion

Why internet censorship doesn’t work and never will

Regulating speech is difficult even under the best of conditions, and the internet is far from the best of conditions. Its patchwork system of regulation by private entities satisfies no one, yet it is likely to endure for the foreseeable future. By way of explanation, consider a case in which authority is (mostly) centralised and the environment is (mostly) controlled: ...

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Euro is still vulnerable after all these years

On its 20th birthday, the best that can be said of the euro — the European currency used by 19 countries — is that it has survived. Two decades after being introduced in 1999, it has not achieved its central goals: increasing economic growth and strengthening public support for European political institutions. In many ways, just the opposite has occurred. ...

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A luxury that firms can’t afford in UK

It’s an ominous sign for investors. The first working day of 2019 was marked by a British commercial property company pausing its buyback program. Hammerson Plc had been repurchasing stock while simultaneously trying to reduce its borrowings. Now it turns out the developer can’t have its cake and eat it. The announcement sent Hammerson shares down as much as 4.8 ...

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Apple’s China IPhone woes were foretold in Japan

They told you so, Apple. Japan’s machinery makers gave Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook a warning well in advance about what he didn’t seem to know: Chinese smartphone demand was plummeting. The iPhone maker blamed China for a cut in its revenue forecast, which sent fresh ripples through the company’s long chain of suppliers across Asia. Apple “did not foresee ...

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Markets signal rising odds of a ’19 recession

For investors attempting to adjust their portfolios in anticipation of a recession by the end of 2020, recent economic indicators carry a message: they may have to prepare for the downturn to start as early as 2019 despite stocks enjoying a recent “dead-cat bounce.” Bloomberg News reports that a Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of ...

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The US needs to continue to lead the global growth

The world enters 2019 with a lot more uncertainty about the prospects for global growth. The excitement a year ago about a synchronised pickup in global growth is replaced by angst that was initially focused on China and Europe but is increasingly spreading to the US, the sole consistent bright spot and one of the most powerful job creators and ...

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Selling drugs not a free lunch in China

There may be such a thing as a free lunch in China’s pharmaceutical industry. It turns out it’s not an unlimited buffet, though. For years, the country’s largest drugmakers have happily sold low-cost generic medicines yielding gross margins of 80 percent to 90 percent without giving much thought to consumer protection or innovation. It’s not uncommon for pharma companies to ...

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Five doom loops investors must navigate in 2019

As the great unwind of global monetary stimulus gains momentum, markets are at increased risk of experiencing doom loops. Investors need to be prepared for these downward spirals, where shocks set off a self-perpetuating sequence of disruptions. There are five doom loops that feed each other in a financial crisis. collateral doom loop Declines in the value of stocks, bonds, ...

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Trump’s trade strategy on China isn’t working

The Trump administration’s willingness to push the Chinese harder on trade has struck a bilateral chord. Beijing is listening. So far, so good. Now the question is what the US wants to achieve. Answer: the total destruction of China as a competitor. That isn’t a trade goal, and the demands being made contradict one another. This aim also unnecessarily awakens ...

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Bond giant has $15bn to play with

This year heralds a brave new world for euro credit spreads. The continent’s biggest buyer of corporate debt is calling a halt after amassing a 180 billion euro portfolio in just two and a half years. The European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchasing Program (CSPP for short) is ending net new buys after gorging on investment grade euro corporate bonds. ...

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