Climate specialists have warned for years about a “carbon bubble†in which markets ignore or massively undervalue the risks to companies from climate change. Two new studies suggest, however, that financial markets have started seriously pricing carbon risk, especially since the Paris Agreement of 2015. Whatever its other effects, that agreement may thus go down in history as the beginning ...
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India’s central bank just did something crazy
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is ending the year as it began: with a shock. Policymakers held their benchmark interest rate at 5.15% on December 5. Not a single economist among the 43 surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted this outcome. Central banks generally hate giving surprises. It makes people wonder what officials know that they don’t, and tends to sap ...
Read More »Wait until Trump hears about carbon border tax
Next week, the European Union’s leaders will commit to cutting net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. This historic pledge will require the continent to radically overhaul its entire economy, including a revolution in the production of steel, cement and chemicals — whose carbon emissions are particularly difficult to abate. None of this will happen, however, unless European companies ...
Read More »Making rides safer is going to cost you
Your mother probably told you never to get in a car with a stranger. The multibillion-dollar global ride-hailing industry depends on your ignoring her. If they want to earn that trust, though, companies need to rethink the tradeoff they’ve long made between safety and cost. Around the world, passengers are now hailing more than 10.5 billion rides a year. Not ...
Read More »Immigrants are burning Canada short sellers
Canada has been a primary target for short sellers since 2013. The principal reasons are the country’s very expensive housing, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, and consumer debt levels that are among the highest in the world. Canada also has an expansive private mortgage market that supplies credit when banks won’t. It is hard to argue with the vulnerabilities. And ...
Read More »Trump doesn’t understand the currency wars, either
What a difference a decade makes. Back in September 2010, Guido Mantega, Brazil’s then-finance minister, was complaining bitterly about “currency wars,†and claiming the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policy of the time was unfairly hurting his economy. “We’re in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency,†he said then. “This threatens us because it takes ...
Read More »Don’t blame ECB for negative rates
The European Central Bank (ECB) has infuriated bankers because of its policy of negative interest rates. It now looks like some euro zone governments are unhappy too. Christine Lagarde, the ECB president, would be wise to keep calm and carry on. Her bank is meant to be independent of political interference and its only objective must be to fulfill its ...
Read More »UniCredit bides its time with an $8.9 billion gift
Jean Pierre Mustier’s new four-year plan for Italy’s UniCredit SpA marks a victorious milestone for the chief executive officer. He’s managed to turn a sprawling European bank laden with bad loans into a simpler entity that promises to improve its returns to shareholders. It leaves him well-placed to plot his biggest move yet (should he so choose): cross-border M&A. The ...
Read More »Climate-friendly banking might be a risky thing
As part of Europe’s promise to become the first “climate-neutral†continent by 2050, the region is emerging as a leader in creating standards for green investments. But the push to get its banks to back sustainable assets needs careful scrutiny. At the core of the European Union’s project is the creation of a single set of definitions to determine what ...
Read More »India’s economy needs Modi to reinvent himself
It’s now official: The Indian economy is suffering through a major slowdown, and one that shows no immediate sign of easing. The only surprise is that the estimate for growth in gross domestic product last quarter isn’t even lower than the announced 4.5%. When the Narendra Modi-led government presented its first budget after being re-elected, it expected growth in 2019-20 ...
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