The big lesson for emerging markets from the taper crisis of 2013 was this: Don’t go into a US tightening cycle without your exporters bringing home truckloads of dollars. That’s why the most recent trade figures from India are both important and encouraging. Clubbed together with Indonesia, Turkey, Russia and South Africa on Morgan Stanley’s “Fragile Five†list four summers …
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Europe takes a backward step on banking union
As part of its plan to complete the euro zone’s so-called banking union, the European Commission has presented a new proposal for collectively insuring bank deposits. Such a scheme is badly needed — but the new idea falls short. By leaving too much risk with national governments, it fails to address a critical weakness of the system. The commission is …
Read More »Trump might wreck NAFTA, believe him
President Donald Trump has been attacking trade for months, but believers in the value of international competition have drawn comfort from his reputation for empty talk and record of non-accomplishment. That record, along with a trade pact that has served the US economy well for decades, may be about to end. Talks on revising the North American Free Trade Agreement …
Read More »On abortion, Democrats show their cultural extremism
What would America’s abortion policy be if the number of months in the gestation of a human infant were a prime number — say, seven or eleven? This thought experiment is germane to why the abortion issue has been politically toxic, and points to a path toward a less bitter debate. The House of Representatives has for a third time …
Read More »Xi hooks markets on China deleveraging myth
So what if there’s a lot of China debt out there, and the pile just keeps getting bigger? Investors, at least, appear not to care. As President Xi Jinping prepares for a second five-year term, he’s already managed to convince markets that China’s deleveraging train has left the station — never mind that there’s no evidence state-owned enterprises have even …
Read More »Watch out, authoritarian cryptocurrencies are coming
With Russia and China both embracing the idea of sovereign cryptocurrencies, it’s time to ask a simple question: Why is a technology threatening to decentralize money so attractive to highly centralized, authoritarian regimes? Last weekend, Argumenti i Fakti, a pro-government newspaper, quoted Russian communication minister Nikolai Nikiforov as saying president Vladimir Putin had ordered the swift launching of a “crypto-ruble.†…
Read More »How might Trump’s hosts sketch his personality profile?
As President Trump prepares to head to Asia next month for his most important overseas trip yet, foreign intelligence services are undoubtedly trying to assemble personality profiles to explain this unconventional, risk-taking, domineering president to the leaders he will meet. How will they describe Trump? Probably not with the same hyperbole we sometimes use in our daily news commentary. Foreign …
Read More »What global finance chiefs are saying about world economy
Don’t celebrate too soon. That was the key message as policy makers and investors left Washington on Sunday after attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. For once the mood was upbeat. The IMF bumped up its forecast for global economic growth this year and next. Stocks are surging, credit spreads are tight and market …
Read More »Junk bonds that tie shale borrowers to Kurdistan
Just like in the summer of 2014, fighting in northern Iraq is sending ripples through the oil market. A lot has changed in the meantime. Back then, IS was sweeping all before it; now, the wannabe caliphate’s collapse is allowing old tensions between Baghdad and the region’s Kurds to resurface. A lot has changed in the oil market, too. Brent …
Read More »The next steps on Iran’s nukes
President Donald Trump’s decertification of the Iranian nuclear deal is a mistake. Yes, its supporters have exaggerated the agreement’s benefits — but on balance, the world is better off with it than without it. In the near term, the decertification doesn’t really change much. The deal will remain in effect while Congress considers re-imposing sanctions on Iran, in effect killing …
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