Finance ministers and central-bank governors logging in for this week’s virtual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank will say the right thing, promising to work together to confront the economic fallout of the coronavirus. The question is whether they will do the right thing and take concrete steps to allow the necessary cooperation and coordination. Many ...
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Can Donald Trump delay the presidential election?
It is alarming, to say the least, that people are even asking this question: Does President Donald Trump have the legal authority to postpone or cancel the 2020 presidential election? The answer is entirely clear: He does not. Start with the Constitution itself: “The Congress may determine the Time of choosing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall ...
Read More »EU’s pandemic failure isn’t just about money
A “great day for European solidarity†is how Germany’s finance minister described last week’s $590 billion euro-area virus rescue package, clinched even as Europe’s North and South haggle over the cost of cleaning up the economic wreckage left by Covid-19. The package would allow countries to borrow from the euro region’s rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, for health-care spending ...
Read More »Post-pandemic future of public protest may be grim
So in light of the coronavirus pandemic, what is the future of public protests? In the 1960s, the US seemed almost defined by the mass demonstrations against Jim Crow and the Vietnam War. In recent years, people have marched through the streets so often, and on behalf of so many different causes, that no one could possibly keep track. In ...
Read More »Covid-19 is reshaping the defense strategies
Even as the Covid-19 pandemic nears its peak, defense analysts are beginning to assess how the global spread of this deadly disease should change how we think about warfare. “This has exposed some genuine gaps in military planning and readiness, as well as vulnerabilities in our national preparedness,†messaged Derek Chollet, a former assistant secretary of defense who’s now executive ...
Read More »Hong Kong’s canary in virus economy
Hong Kong led the world in adopting helicopter money. Now the city’s long-term wage subsidies have again put it at the forefront of global efforts to blunt the impact of the coronavirus. Other economies should pay attention. The government said that it will fund 50% of affected workers’ salaries for six months, capped at the equivalent of $1,160 a month. ...
Read More »No, America’s GDP isn’t going to shrink 30%
In the US, the headline gross domestic product number reported every quarter by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the percentage change in GDP from the previous quarter, annualised. Other countries, and international economic-statistics compilers such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, tend to report just the quarterly percentage change and skip the annualising. I don’t know ...
Read More »Yet another US-wide housing slump coming
A US housing crisis is coming and although it won’t be anything like the last one, that won’t make it any less painful. Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued. And the dearth of inventory that’s plagued the current cycle will reverse in violent fashion once the worst of the virus ...
Read More »And the coronavirus now comes for my hometown!
Those photos of famous public spaces in Paris or Manhattan in the age of corona-lockdown convey an eerie absence. The eyes search the frame for the people who aren’t there. The empty Main Street of my hometown will never be mistaken for the Tuileries or Times Square. Outside the new Vietnamese restaurant, which opened just before the coronavirus swept all ...
Read More »Next pandemic? Run Trump plan in reverse
“Allow me to say as I told her personally today, the governor of Oregon, Governor Kate Brown — her unilateral decision to send 140 ventilators … to New York, to me was in the very highest American tradition of loving your neighbor. And when I talked to Governor Cuomo, Mr. President, he said they never asked Oregon for the ventilators ...
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