Wednesday , 17 December 2025

Opinion

Escaping the dreaded national middle-income trap

  In the age of colonialism, there were mainly two kinds of countries: empires that controlled their economic destinies, and colonies, which were denied the chance to industrialize. After World War II and the end of colonialism, a different divide emerged — many countries were trapped behind the Iron Curtain, held back by inefficient communist systems. Meanwhile, the capitalist countries …

Read More »

Job market offers the Fed no solace

  The inconclusive August jobs report might not provide the Federal Reserve with the impetus it needs to take interest rates higher in the near future. That’s particularly true since by some important measures, the economy still isn’t quite back to where it was even at the beginning of earlier tightening cycles. The employment report portrays an economy still growing …

Read More »

Merkel’s migrant policy faces litmus test

  It is a sheer coincidence. On September 4, 2015, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel had initiated the open-door refugee policy to let thousands of migrants into the country. Exactly one year later, her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces elections in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — the home state of Merkel — whose results could be a litmus test …

Read More »

Amazon wants to deliver stuff, too? That’s weird

  Over the last 20 years, Amazon has taught us to buy everything on the web. At least in urban areas like mine, we are close to realizing the dream of a retail environment that consists entirely of storefronts selling food and beverages, while delivery trucks whiz back and forth before diners beneath umbrellas. But is Amazon content with this …

Read More »

The coming storm for global financial markets

Global growth is weak, and will be eroded further by Brexit. Oil prices are low, and likely to plunge further. The world has excess capacity and a wage-depressing labor surplus. Corporate profits are shaky. And deflation is laying bare the impotence of central banks. So where would you logically expect financial markets to be going, given that economic, financial and …

Read More »

Conditions are ripe for an exodus from big US cities

  The stock market of the late 1990s is remembered mostly for high-flying dotcom equities that eventually crashed back to earth. Yet, from a money flows standpoint, the bigger imbalance of that era was that large-cap stocks fetched very high valuations relative to small cap stocks. This market opportunity was exploited by hedge funds, leading to a decade of outperformance …

Read More »

Ending poverty: Mission impossible for Americans?

  Don’t expect a second War on Poverty, regardless of who wins the US election. Picking up where Lyndon Johnson left off in the 1960s would seem a logical response to the campaign’s relentless criticism of economic inequality. But appearances are deceiving. Most proposals to reduce inequality — conspicuously from Hillary Clinton — are aimed at the middle class. Spillovers …

Read More »

Lure of protectionism will keep growing

  One of the surprises of the 2008 global financial crisis is that the “great recession” that followed did not trigger much of a protectionist backlash. Developments this week suggest that, in the absence of more enlightened and coordinated political leadership, this may be changing. As output collapsed after the financial system’s “sudden stop” in the fall of 2008, and …

Read More »

Fossil-fuel subsidies are the world’s dumbest policy

  Many things have gotten harder as the world settles into a protracted spell of low oil prices and sluggish growth — from avoiding deflation to creating jobs. One thing has gotten easier, as well as more urgent: eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies. Governments have long paid lip service to this idea. The G-20 has been promising to phase out fuel subsidies …

Read More »

G20 must forge global economic synergy

Never before has a G20 summit faced such diverse and gruelling challenge as the September 4-5 Hangzhou meet encounters. Themed aptly as ‘Towards an Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected and Inclusive World Economy’, the world is eagerly awaiting the event, hoping it delivers something beyond just pledges — A strategy towards an effective global economic synergy. The meeting comes at a very …

Read More »