Will Brexit be hard or soft? The question preoccupies British politicians and commentators — not to mention global currency markets, if the sharp fall in sterling this week is any guide. Despite its command of the discussion, however, this hard-or-soft framing is unhelpful. It’s best dropped altogether. Sterling slumped after Prime Minister Theresa May announced on Oct. 2 that …
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Clinton’s lead doesn’t depend on a debate
General-election debates rarely cause major changes in voters’ choices. That’s what political scientists believe for the most part. Yet after the first presidential debate, on Sept. 26, Hillary Clinton moved back into a strong lead over Donald Trump. Indeed, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, her chances of winning bottomed out on that very day (at 55 percent), and have …
Read More »Mixed US jobs report won’t be Fed tiebreaker
There had been hope the U.S. jobs report for September released on Friday would show faster wage growth and a rising labor participation rate. It had both, though the data was otherwise mixed. After the disappointing drop for August, wage growth picked up to an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in September. Along with an increase in the number of …
Read More »Protectionism calls for global coordination
The world is in the grip of surging protectionism. The anti-free trade and anti-globalization sentiments are taking deep roots. Populism is swaying the masses. The odds seem to be conspiring against an already fragile economic growth. International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of “low growth trap†in the next few years. Despite warnings and calls to stop the tide of …
Read More »Garden, like Obamacare, will prove hard to uproot
Michelle Obama has spent a long time building a “kitchen garden†for the White House, intended as an example to the nation of local eating and healthy food. Now that she’s leaving the White House, she doesn’t want to see it wither away. Politico reports: Obama on Wednesday afternoon will formally unveil a much bigger version of the garden …
Read More »Meal-delivery startups show that tech is disrupted
Blue Apron, the leading meal-delivery startup, pitches itself as “disruptive tech,†but a recent BuzzFeed article shows that the tech is what’s being disrupted. This company is at the mercy of physical-world constraints just like the brick-and-mortar businesses it’s competing with. As tech looks to muscle its way into more parts of the economy, this may become a theme. …
Read More »Maybe companies aren’t so focused on the short term
Tyler Cowen Hillary Clinton thinks U.S. corporations live for the short-term, obsessing over the next quarterly earnings statement to the neglect of their longer-run prospects. That’s a common criticism and the evidence to support it includes testimonials by corporate chief executives, a variety of corporate scandals and high and rising corporate discount rates on future cash flows. Still, it’s …
Read More »The new reactionaries!
A reactionary is someone who wishes to return, usually unrealistically, to an earlier and more appealing era. We have two reactionaries running for president. Both peddle agendas that promise to re-create a reassuring past. We are being fed different varieties of nostalgia. Neither will work. Donald Trump is most explicit. He pledges to “make America great again.†What does this …
Read More »Central banks are spreading unnecessary confusion
If there’s a golden rule for central bankers in the 21st century, this is it: Seek clarity and avoid uncertainty. A central bank’s target should be clear. The data it uses should be known. The analysis it conducts on that data should be comprehensible. And, certainly, politics should have nothing to do with its decisions. Negative Interest Rates Yet …
Read More »Canada’s new carbon tax sets the trend on climate
Canada is an unlikely model for climate-change policy. As things stand, it’s a long way from keeping the promise it made as part of the Paris agreement to sharply cut carbon emissions. But its government is now proposing to make this right — and with an approach that deserves to be widely copied. The Cost of Carbon This week Prime …
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