Catalan separatists plot ‘show of strength’

Bloomberg

Catalonia’s separatist leaders
are seeking a show of force from their supporters as they advance toward an illegal referendum on
independence.
The movement will stage its annual demonstrations on Catalan National Day, a holiday in the region, with parades along four of the main avenues in Barcelona as well as speeches and concerts. More than 390,000 people had registered to take part as of Sunday.
Separatist leaders are trying to show Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy the scale of the backlash he risks if he uses force to shut down their preparations for an Oct. 1 ballot. Faced with the biggest constitutional crisis since the 1981 coup, Rajoy is hesitating to use the most drastic tools at his disposal, wary of the reaction on the streets.
“They haven’t been realistic about what we can do here,” Jordi Sanchez, head of the Catalan National Assembly, a civic group that leads the campaign for secession, said in an interview. “We have a very good feeling about National Day.”
In a spectacle choreographed for the media, demonstrators will be asked to change into yellow shirts as they pass under campaign banners. There will also be recognition of those killed in two terrorist attacks in the region last month.
Still, outside of the vocal minority, support for independence in Catalonia has declined over the past four years as the economic recovery drains away moderates. Just 35 percent said Catalonia should be independent in a July survey by the Catalan government’s polling agency.
“Even if they go ahead with the referendum, it’s still hard to see how Catalonia can really take its independence project forward,” said Caroline Gray, a lecturer in politics and Spanish at Aston University. “There’s a real disconnect between how they see themselves and how this all looks to the outside world.” Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert said that the separatists’ demands were an internal matter and that Germany has a strong interest in maintaining stability in Spain.
The separatist leadership won’t consider more disruptive action while they believe it’s still possible to stage the Oct. 1 referendum, said Sanchez, who is running the separatist campaign in coordination with political and civic leaders including Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras, the regional vice-president.
If it becomes clear that the vote can’t happen — if, for example, police seize the 6,400 ballot boxes hidden across the region — then they have plans for protests blocking the main avenues in Barcelona, and might even consider action to
obstruct exporters, Sanchez said.