Britain’s ‘stay’ or ‘leave’ EU quandary

Campaign for a ‘stay’ or ‘leave’ the European Union (EU) is taking an ugly turn as both sides warn of dire consequences should the UK remain or exit the EU. In fact, both sides blend the scaremongering with facts to canvass votes of the groping voters who may decide the result of referendum. Boris Johnson, the leading ‘leave’ campaign figure, caused an outrage by suggesting in a newspaper interview that the EU had similar ambitions like that of Hitler in unifying Europe under one authority. It is Johnson himself who accused a number of foreign leaders of interference and scaremongering by taking sides in UK’s “domestic issue”. Surprisingly, he kept mum when Donald Trump backed the ‘leave’ campaign to stem immigration.
Now, he is using the scaremongering by comparing unified Europe with
Germany under Hitler. He is trying to scare the voters, especially the youth to embrace the Brexit.
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron resorted to the same tactics by suggesting that the leader of the IS group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, would welcome Britain leaving the bloc. The truth is he would not even mind, but Cameron uses it to scare the ‘leave’ campaign that enemies of the UK prefer Brexit. He was also accused of suggesting that a new world war could break out after warning that a Brexit would threaten decades of peace in Europe.
Opinion polls suggest the ‘remain’ bloc is on course to win, yet experts caution that turnout will be key, with many of those most supportive of the EU — young people and ethnic minorities — also least likely to vote.
An average of the last six surveys by the What UK Thinks research project gives the campaign a 10-point lead over the ‘leave’ camp, on 55 per cent,
excluding people who are undecided.
If Brexit wins, there will be likelihood of a second referendum on Scottish independence, after the governing nationalists warned the Brexit could see the broadly pro-European Scots make another bid to leave the UK within
two years.
The leave campaign may be eyeing the Norwegian and Swiss models of EU association, but experts see such models are not suitable for the UK post- Brexit. Yet, they could be adapted to Britain’s unique circumstance. However, questions remain whether the EU will be ready to give concessions to the UK after the Brexit.
According to Open Europe’s comprehensive Brexit report, UK GDP could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU and fails to strike a deal with the EU or reverts into protectionism. In a best case scenario, under which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, while pursuing large-scale deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP in 2030.
There is a global consensus the Brexit vote would cause turmoil in the markets and uncertainty in the City of London financial hub, leading to a 15-20 percent fall in the pound sterling, inflation at five percent, a hike in the cost of labour, and the growth rate dropping by one to 1.5 percent.
But the ‘leave’ campaign believes opening up the UK economy to trade with the rest of the world – including the USA, India, China and Indonesia – is essential to economic growth post-Brexit. However, there are fears that the
current status of the UK would not be same at the global level. The truth will be known on June 23, exactly a month from now.