Brexit ‘will be delayed’, say diplomats

Bloomberg

British and European Union diplomats are now working on the assumption that the UK will leave the bloc later than the planned exit date of March 29 if PM Theresa May loses Tuesday’s Brexit deal vote in Parliament.
Officials dealing with Brexit for the UK and EU are separately preparing for the possibility, even though there have been no discussions on the issue between the two sides and no indication from May that this is her plan, according to four people familiar with the situation.
Much depends on the scale of May’s expected defeat on the Brexit deal in Parliament. If she loses heavily, EU officials said they think she’ll have no other option than to extend the Brexit negotiating period — known as Article 50 — to have time to convince lawmakers to back the deal.
“Even if things don’t go our way this evening in the vote in the British Parliament, and even if the next few weeks and months are rocky, it’s important that we continue to sing from the same hymn sheet,” Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz told the European Parliament on Tuesday in Strasbourg, France, appealing to EU unity.
While May repeated “we’re leaving on March 29” during a question-and-answer session after a speech in the English city of Stoke-on-Trent, she didn’t rule out delaying the departure date. “I’ve been clear that I don’t think we should be extending Article 50,” she said.
Markets are starting to price in the prospect of a delay, which would prevent the UK crashing out of the bloc without divorce terms or a transition period to smooth the process. But the move would be politically perilous for May as the pro-Brexit faction of her party would see it as a betrayal.
For a postponement, the UK must make a formal request to the EU and all the remaining 27 EU leaders must agree to it.
EU officials said a delay until the start of July would be simple. Anything beyond that is likely to face more resistance because the European Parliament reconvenes that month after elections in May in which the UK isn’t due to take part.
While British officials said an extension isn’t definite, the amount of legislation the UK Parliament needs to pass before the country can leave the EU increases the likelihood of a delay.