Brexit vote close to a photo-finish

Bloomberg

Britain’s referendum on European Union membership remained too close to call two days before the vote, with separate polls showing leads for both sides and billionaire investor George Soros warning of a slump in the pound should voters back Brexit.
A YouGov poll of 1,652 voters for the Times newspaper published late on Monday showed “Leave” at 44 percent and 42 percent for “Remain”, while a survey of 800 people by ORB for the Daily Telegraph had “Remain” at 53 percent and “Leave” at 46 percent among those certain to vote once “don’t knows” were stripped out.
The pound, which surged the most since 2008 on Monday as investors bet that the referendum was swinging in favor of “Remain,” fell about 0.3 percent in Asian trading on Tuesday. Still, Soros, who made $1 billion betting on a devaluation of the pound in 1992, warned that the possibility of the U.K. leaving the EU is still a real risk which could cut the currency’s value by a fifth.
“It is reasonable to assume, given the expectations implied by the market pricing at present, that after a Brexit vote the pound would fall by at least 15 percent and possibly more than 20 percent,” Soros wrote in the Guardian newspaper. “I want people to know what the consequences of leaving the EU would be before they cast their votes, rather than after.”
Governments and investors around the world are watching the referendum amid concern that a so-called Brexit would spark turmoil across global markets. The final big set-piece before the vote takes place is scheduled later, when former London Mayor Boris Johnson and his pro-EU successor, Sadiq Khan, take part in a BBC television debate at London’s Wembley Arena. In championing the “Remain” campaign, Prime Minister David Cameron and his Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne have focused on the risks to the British economy if Britain quits the bloc.
“Why are people now delaying buying a home or buying a car if they are not fearful of the consequences of a vote to leave?” Osborne said in an LBC radio interview. “Brexit’s OK if you’re very rich, but for the rest of the country who will have to live with the consequences, not just for Friday morning but for decades to come, they have nowhere else to go.”
The campaign to stay went mostly unhampered as lawmakers paused an often-virulent contest on Monday to pay tribute to murdered colleague Jo Cox. Cameron and opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn led tributes to the Labour politician killed on Thursday after Parliament was recalled from a pre-referendum recess. Recalling Cox’s work on behalf of refugees, Cameron quoted her own words: “We are far more united and have far more in common with each other than things that divide us.”

Biggest Gain
The pound surged 2.4 percent against the dollar on Monday for its biggest gain since 2008 and sterling volatility retreated following polls published Sunday showing “Remain” regaining the lead that it had lost in recent weeks. Asian stocks were poised on Tuesday for the biggest three-day rally in two months. Osborne said the government has made no preparations for a Brexit, apart from “contingency plans for dealing with the financial-stability consequences of a vote to leave.” He warned that “it would take years to disengage from the EU, years of economic hardship as a result.” Even a close vote to stay in the bloc would resolve the issue of Britain’s continued membership “for a generation,” the chancellor told LBC.
Richard Branson, the billionaire founder of Virgin Group Ltd., wrote on the company’s website that Britain should remain in the EU.
“Some are looking backwards and inwards for inspiration and hope – when they should be looking forward at a wide world of opportunity,” Branson said. “If you vote Leave, you are not kicking the establishment in the balls — you are shooting yourself in the foot.”

Immigration
Campaign
U.K. Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage, criticized by his foes for a poster depicting a crowd of refugees entering the EU, defended the “Leave” campaign’s focus on immigration. He told a BBC Radio interview that “the central point of this campaign is that we want to control our country and part of that is controlling our borders.”
“It’s wrong to shut down immigration as a debate,” Leave.EU founder Arron Banks said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “People are worried about it. When we poll people, it’s the number one thing they’re concerned about. Two, three and four are schools, hospitals, services, which are proxies for immigration.” Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Tory election win last year, said turnout would be crucial in the outcome of Thursday’s vote. In a commentary on the ORB poll, which showed a narrower lead for Remain of 49 percent to 47 percent before those unlikely to vote were filtered out, he said voters may be motivated to turn out by seeing their opponents in the lead.

Voter Turnout
“The side that is most effective in motivating their voters to turn out on the 23rd will be the side that emerges victorious,” Crosby wrote. “It is clear that polls are now an actor in elections and referendums, not just a metric of public opinion.”
A survey of 1,632 voters by The National Center for Social Research between May 16 and June 12 found a lead for Remain by 53 percent to 47 percent, the organization said in a statement. The team contacted voters online and by phone, in line with recommendations after the failure of pollsters to predict the outcome of last year’s general election.
“Our survey provides valuable insight into how to interpret the divergent results that have been produced by internet and phone polls throughout the referendum campaign,” John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said in an email. “However, it is important to remember that the outcome looks so close that any lead should be treated with caution.”
In Brussels, EU leaders said Britain departing the bloc is a real possibility. “I have no doubt that our enemies — internal and external enemies — will open a bottle of champagne if the result is negative for us,” EU Council President Donald Tusk said. Whatever the outcome, “we must take a long hard look” at the EU’s future.