Brexit could have far-reaching impact

Serious prospect of Britain leaving the European Union could trigger a domino effect within the UK itself, as Scotland could opt for another referendum, with intention to secede from the UK to join the EU. At worst, Brexit is widely believed to lead to a breakup of the UK if Brexiteers get their way on June 23. Northern Ireland and Scotland are the UK’s most pro-EU regions with almost two thirds of respondents responding to a recent YouGov poll wishing to remain.
But the Leave campaign sees such scenarios as part of scaremongering employed by the Remain campaign to canvass votes through scaring the electorate base.
In economic terms, the impact of the Brexit would be most evident in trade policy. While the UK would likely be free to strike new trade deals based on domestic priorities it would have less leverage and be a lower priority than the EU for other countries. This has been voiced by the UK allies, including the US President Barack Obama.
The EU would likewise be a less attractive partner at a time when it is only second priority for the US and Japan and a lower priority for many emerging countries.
Brexit itself and beyond would be long and uncertain, taking years or more. The UK has been an influential EU member who played greater role in the single market and enacting of many laws. The impact of Brexit through the trade and investment channels would be most severe in the UK. Regulatory divergence would increase over time, affecting trade volumes and reducing the attractiveness of the UK for investment.
Brexit may evoke euroscepticism across Europe. Brussels is increasingly accused of meddlesome bureaucracy and undermining national sovereignty. A recent survey by the US-based Pew Research Center showed a sharp dip in favourable views of the EU among Europeans, with a huge 17-point drop to 38 percent in France over a single year. Europeans are “not any longer passionate or in love with the European dream”, with its benefits largely now taken for granted, said Janis Emmanouilidis, director of studies at Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre. These anti-euro sentiments were prompted by the migrant crisis. Many countries have suspended the Schengen border-free movement as leaders failed to agree how to share the burden of a million-plus refugees.
Many EU leaders acknowledge that Europeans do not share their appetite for the dream of “ever closer union”. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, an arch federalist, admitted that citizens were “stepping away” from the European project because Brussels was “interfering in too many domains of their private lives”.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned of the domino effects in EU in case the Brexit won. “It would be a shock for the EU that would require mutual assurances that the EU continues to stick together and that a very successful decades-long process of integration doesn’t in the end turn into disintegration.”
The rest of the EU would also feel the impact through several other channels. The EU would lose an influential, liberalising member, shifting the balance of power in the European Council. It would become harder to block illiberal measures. Moreover, there would likely be a new regulatory dynamic with the UK outside the EU. The UK may seek to undercut the EU on standards impacting on the business environment; but this in turn may create a healthy regulatory competition by putting pressure on the EU from the outside to be more liberal in its policies.
In case of the Brexit, all member states would regret the loss of international influence enjoyed by the EU without the UK and the damage that it would do to the esteem of the EU globally. Yet, those favouring exit make a very strong argument that the UK could be better off like Singapore, US and Japan. This will be ascertained by vote
results. Wait until June 23.