Brazil race tightens in poll assessing runoff voters

Brazil’s presidential race is still tightening according to a new opinion poll that takes into account voters most likely to show up on election day.

The Quaest poll published Wednesday followed a trend seen in other surveys this week that showed President Jair Bolsonaro’s overall momentum fading, but it also gauged the possible impact of abstention rates on Sunday’s runoff vote.

Quaest’s “likely voter” scenario has leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva getting 52.1% of valid votes, which excludes null and blank ballots, down from 52.8% last week. Bolsonaro would get 47.9%, up from 47.2%.

Considering total votes, Bolsonaro remains with 42% while Lula reached 48%, 1 percentage point more than in the previous week. All the changes fell within the survey’s margin of error.

Quaest is among major pollsters now trying to somehow account for the impact of no-shows in the election. Large abstention rates tend to hurt Lula the most as low-income voters, who form a key part of the former president’s base of support, are more likely to not show up on election day. “Abstention continues to be important and could reduce Lula’s advantage,” Felipe Nunes, the head of Quaest, wrote on Twitter.

Latin America’s biggest election this year is coming down to the wire as both candidates try to chip away at each other’s support in the final stretch. This month, Bolsonaro, 67, launched a slew of last-minute measures such as extending welfare handouts for half a million families and boosting assistance for taxi drivers in a bid to improve voters’ feelings about the economy.

That may be paying off, according to Thomas Traumann, a Rio de Janeiro-based political consultant and columnist.

“Pork-barrel politics is highly efficient in Brazilian elections and normally gives the incumbent extra points when vote comes,” Traumann said.

For his part, Lula, 76, has tried to capitalize on blunders made by the president and his allies over the past few days.

—Bloomberg