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Bloomberg
Brazil was among the first countries to recognize US-backed National Assembly President Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s rightful leader but it’s unlikely to add much more pressure to help oust Nicolas Maduro.
President Jair Bolsonaro is no fan of Maduro, yet he’s been constrained by economic interests, a long-held Brazilian tradition of non-intervention in other countries, and a dash of political savvy. That means his government is unlikely to offer anything much beyond humanitarian aid or words of support for Guaido. Take Brazil’s energy dependence. The country’s northernmost state, Roraima, is supplied by cheap hydroelectricity from Venezuela’s Guri dam. While Brazil has the thermoelectric capacity to supply Roraima, it comes at much higher cost —an additional 684 million reais ($183 million) per year, according to the country’s electric energy agency.
“It’s hard for Brazil at this moment, especially due to budget problems, to disregard the energy that comes from the hydro plant of Guri,†Vice President Hamilton Mourao said in an interview from his office in Brasilia.
There is also caution over a potential clash with China, which along with Russia has supported Maduro’s government. China is not only a major investor in Brazil’s power and logistical infrastructure but also the largest buyer of Brazilian commodities, from soy and iron ore to sugar and coffee.
“We are not exclusive suppliers of any of those. China knows how to play those games and they do it mercilessly,†said Mauricio Santoro, international relations and political science professor at Rio de Janeiro State University.