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President Jair Bolsonaro’s momentum in opinion polls seemed to stall after a series of blunders and incidents over the past few days, including the arrest of one of his most outspoken supporters —an episode that turned violent and shook Brazilians ahead of Sunday’s presidential runoff.
Leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, would take 54% of valid votes, which exclude null and blank ballots, compared to the incumbent’s 46%, according to an Ipec poll published late Monday. Both were unchanged from a week ago.
Bolsonaro’s campaign entered the final stretch of the race on edge following an hours-long standoff between former lawmaker Roberto Jefferson, the ex-president of a right-wing party, and federal police on Sunday. Jefferson fired a rifle and lobbed grenades at police who had orders to detain him for violating the terms of his house arrest. The vocal politician was barred from using social media, but just a few days earlier posted a video online comparing a female member of the top court with a prostitute.
Two officers were wounded before he was brought into custody. The showdown also weighed on market bets that Bolsonaro was about to overcome Lula, and raised concerns about possible post-election violence in the country. The Brazilian real weakened the most in about a month on Monday, while shares of state-owned companies sank and drove the benchmark Ibovespa index to lose more than 3%.
Bolsonaro has since tried to distance himself from Jefferson, saying they are not friends and that whoever goes against the police is a bandit. According to a flash poll conducted by AtlasIntel, two thirds of Brazilians view the onetime lawmaker negatively and nearly 60% believe he should go to prison.
Multiple Gaffes
The incident capped a series of gaffes by Bolsonaro and his allies that likely halted the conservative president’s upswing since the Oct. 2 first-round vote. Major polls last week indicated the one-time army captain was narrowing Lula’s lead, with some surveys suggesting the current and former president were in a dead heat.
—Bloomberg