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‘EU can’t cherry pick post-Brexit trade deal’

Bloomberg The European Union can’t pick and choose which bits of its economic relationship with Britain it maintains and which it eliminates in any future trade deal, UK Brexit Secretary David Davis said, throwing the words of EU diplomats back at them. Post-Brexit trade talks are due to start in March, with a year remaining until Britain’s scheduled exit day ...

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US strategy to knock out North Korean missiles carries risk

Bloomberg The Trump administration’s national security strategy calls for a more aggressive approach toward stopping a North Korean missile strike on the US: knocking the weapons out prior to launch. But it’s unclear that the US has the technology or on-the-ground intelligence to effectively carry out a preemptive strike in that kind of crisis situation. And if it fails, the ...

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Next step in tax reform is repairing what’s wrong

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 — commonly known as the Republican tax reform bill — has a number of good things in it. My Bloomberg View colleague Justin Fox has an excellent rundown. The corporate-tax rate cut was something that needed to happen for a long time, and mainly just follows the example set by other developed ...

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India’s bond market has a 2018 message for Narendra Modi

One year ago, India’s bond market was riding a wave of unprecedented liquidity. Now it’s mired in all kinds of doubts, ending 2017 weaker than Chinese sovereign debt when the opposite outcome would have been more natural. After all, India saw a ratings upgrade by Moody’s Investors Service during the year, while China was downgraded. The message for Indian Prime ...

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The big loser is Shenzhen; the big reason is Leshi

Shenzhen is the only downer this year among major Asian stock markets. The Shenzhen Composite Index, often referred to as China’s Nasdaq, fell about 4 percent in dollar terms, a sad result compared with the more than 35 percent gain in the Hang Seng Index. The Shanghai Stock Exchange SSE 50 A-Share Index, the so-called Beautiful 50 gauge of China’s ...

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Europe poses a MiFID II challenge to US finance

Europe’s regulators and financial institutions are under the gun: With a January 3 deadline, they’ve been scrambling to comply with new rules designed to make the region’s capital markets more investor-friendly. The goal — if not the way the policy is being implemented — is one their counterparts in the US might want to consider. Attention so far has focused ...

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Mental-health IPO is a leap forward for China

The number of Chinese registered as suffering from depression, anxiety, dementia, and other mental illnesses increased by 25 percent between 2014 and 2016, according to Chinese authorities. By one recent accounting, they number 173 million. Only 20 million receive professional treatment. Long-standing social stigmas and a lack of treatment options account for most of the gap. But those biases and ...

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Return of volatility foreshadowed in economic data

If financial market volatility was given up for dead in 2017, then get ready for a resurrection. To understand why, take a look at the incoming economic data. When the underlying dynamics of the economy change, the data tend to become more volatile before markets react. Economic volatility as expressed by the standard deviation of changes in the monthly data ...

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Markets helped by what didn’t happen in 2017

Many of the assessments of the 2017 financial markets understandably focused on the impressively favourable outcomes delivered by stocks and other risk assets. Yet it is also worth considering what didn’t happen — in particular, nine events, which, by not taking place, contributed to make the last 12 months exceptional for many investors, big and small. Superlatives have been and ...

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New York Fed takes names in search for new president

Bloomberg It may be the trickiest job to fill in central banking. And as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York search committee casts a wide net to find a replacement for its outgoing president, William Dudley, the wish list is getting long. Interviews with 10 members of the Fed’s advisory boards, which the committee is consulting, suggest they want ...

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