Armed soldiers abort plan to enter Venezuela by force

Bloomberg

Late last month, as US officials joined Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido near a bridge in Colombia to send desperately needed aid to the masses and challenge the rule of Nicolas Maduro, some 200 exiled soldiers were checking their weapons and planning to clear the way for the convoy.
Led by retired General Cliver Alcala, who has been living in Colombia, they were going to drive back the Venezuelan national guardsmen blocking the aid on the other side.
The plan was stopped by the Colombian government, which learned of it late and feared violent clashes at a highly public event it promised would be peaceful.
Almost no provisions got in that day and hopes that military commanders would abandon Maduro have so far been dashed. Even though Guaido is back in Caracas, recognized by 50 nations as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, the impromptu taking up of arms shows that the push to remove Maduro — hailed by the US as inevitable — is growing increasingly chaotic and risky.
As the standoff drags on, the urge to seek some sort of military solution will only increase. Guaido himself hinted at such an idea in the immediate aftermath of the failed aid mission. His comments got a cool official reception in Washington, Bogota and Brasilia but Senator Marco Rubio, who has helped shape US policy on Venezuela, seemed to cheer them on. President Donald Trump has said all options remain on the table.
A Brave Face
This article is based on interviews with US and Latin American officials and Venezuelan exiles, some of whom asked not to be identified speaking about confidential matters. Alcalá, the retired general, did acknowledge the plan to escort the aid across the border and said he understands why the Colombians wanted to avoid trouble. A Colombian government spokesman didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The US officials who have driven the Venezuela policy —Rubio, National Security Adviser John Bolton and special envoy Elliott Abrams — continue to put on a brave face, increasing economic and diplomatic pressure and tweeting daily about Maduro’s certain departure.
Behind the scenes, however, there is concern and dismay. At a United Nations Security Council session last week, Russia and China vetoed a US-sponsored resolution calling for free and fair new elections and restoration of democracy. Moreover, when Guaido was in Colombia, its president, Ivan Duque, expressed frustration to him. Witnesses said Duque complained about the failure of Guaido’s promise to bring tens of thousands of Venezuelans to the border to receive the humanitarian aid.

3.4 Million Refugees
There have been other concerns. Guaido was planning to make a tour of European capitals this week to build international support, but the Americans told him he needed to return to Venezuela or he’d lose whatever momentum remained. US officials say they worry that Colombia, a vital ally still getting over a decades-long guerrilla war, is especially vulnerable to the ongoing Venezuela crisis. The number of Venezuelan refugees escaping shortages, hyperinflation and hunger is likely to increase from the current 3.4 million to over 5 million if Maduro is still in office at the end of the year, they say. Many will end up in Colombia.
Drug trafficking, which the US says is led partly by senior Venezuelan officials, could further damage Colombia’s efforts to stop the increase of coca
cultivation.
The impact of both drug trafficking and refugees would also harm Brazil, which is trying to overcome its own economic and corruption crises.
Despite calls for military intervention, no major government involved — US, Brazil or Colombia — is planning such a move. Those who oppose the idea say it’d require tens of thousands of troops and billions of dollars in a country twice the size of Iraq with both a standing army and citizen militias.