It’s easy to sense signs of strain in the US economy: inversion of the yield curve, lackluster jobs data and an escalating trade war with China. It’s more difficult to gauge when a slowdown turns into a recession. Predicting its severity – mild or monstrous? – is even more difficult.
Recent research by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis suggests that real yields on 10-year Treasury bonds are the key to answering this question.
The authors looked at all the postwar recessions that the yield curve had predicted. Then they looked at the 10-year Treasury yield at the moment of inversion – and compared it with the length of the subsequent recession.
At first glance, this revealed nothing: Nominal rates at these critical turning points had no correlation with the economy’s decline. But when they looked at the real interest rate – the ten-year yield minus inflation – they found something else altogether. Lower real rates for 10-year Treasuries at the onset of a recession tracked with worse downturns, both in terms of duration and unemployment.
Explaining the connection is another matter. While it’s tempting to read this as a causal relationship, the researchers speculate that lower real rates are simply a sign that the prospects for future growth aren’t great. As they put it, “Low levels of real interest rates capture early warnings of future slowdown in economic growth.â€
This makes considerable sense if you think about the past ten years. Yes, the economy made a recovery, but only through staggering levels of intervention via a zero interest rate policy. For all the talk about the duration of the ongoing recovery, the fact that short- or long-term interest rates haven’t bumped higher is a symptom of a deeper malaise.
To put our current situation in perspective, look closely at the graphs. Those recessions with the biggest spikes were pretty bad: The three clustered on the left – 1956, 1978, and 2006 – have all been defined by wrenching increases in unemployment (as much as 4.5 percent). They also lasted much longer than garden-variety recessions.
Now consider that the current “real†level of the 10-year yield – a pathetic 0.35% – would sit far to the left of all the older recessions plotted on the graph. If the pattern holds – the lower the 10-year yield, the worse the resulting recession – the coming spike would be the biggest by far.
That possibility may seem remote, given that investors have apparently decided that it’s safe to dive back in the water: Thanks to a week-long rally, the major indexes are approaching all-time highs.
But the 10-year yield suggests we should be worried about what lurks beneath the surface. If a recession is in the offing, there’s a good chance it could be fiercer than anyone expects.
If so, those researchers are gonna need a bigger graph.
—Bloomberg