Big Oil’s $65bn dream hidden off Norway fading away

Bloomberg

Norway’s oil industry has been salivating for years over the Arctic Lofoten islands, which could hold billions of barrels of crude. It will likely have to keep dreaming.
The general election next month is unlikely to lift a deadlock that’s keeping a ban on drilling off the environmentally sensitive archipelago as more and more Norwegians are turning their backs on the industry that helped make the country one of the world’s richest.
“It’s a dead issue,” said Frank Aarebrot, a professor of political science at the University of Bergen. Backed by unions and business, Norway’s two biggest parties, Labor and the Conservatives, have long favored steps that could open up the area for exploration. But so far they have had to compromise with smaller parties that are determined to keep Lofoten oil-free.
That’s because the area is a natural wonder. The waters off the rugged archipelago are home to the world’s biggest cold-water coral reef and a breeding area for 70 percent of all fish caught in the Norwegian and Barents seas, according to WWF. The islands also host mainland Europe’s biggest seabird colony. Opponents of oil exploration argue a spill could cause catastrophic harm and that Norway will run afoul of the Paris climate agreement if it expands exploration more.
Oil companies led by state-controlled Statoil ASA, the biggest Norwegian producer, say gaining access is key if the country wants to maintain production of oil and gas, which is forecast to fall again from 2025 after already dropping 12 percent since a 2004 peak. While the government estimates Lofoten could hold about 1.3 billion barrels of
oil equivalent, industry group Konkraft has said resources could top 3 billion barrels.
“We’re dependent on making new discoveries to have new projects in that time-frame,” Statoil spokesman Bard Glad Pedersen said by phone. “That also underlines the urgency in an impact assessment for Lofoten and Vesteraalen.”
The debate over Lofoten frames a wider discussion in Norway over what role western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer, which started pumping crude in the 1970s, should take in the fight against climate change. Some 44 percent of Norwegians would be willing to leave some oil in the ground if it helps cut emissions, according to an Ipsos poll done this month for Dagbladet.
The question is also whether there will actually be a need for the area’s untapped crude. As prices for renewable energy drop and oil producers from Exxon Mobil Corp. to OPEC hike their forecasts for electric car sales, Big Oil has started talking about crude demand peaking as early as next decade.
While both Prime Minister Erna Solberg and her rival from Labor, Jonas Gahr Store, say Norway needs to become less reliant on oil, they also maintain that petroleum production will continue to play a big part for many years ahead.