Brexit: Theresa May’s high-wire act

At last, the much heralded date for UK to file divorce papers to leave European Union has been announced. British Prime Minister Theresa May will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal process of leaving the EU, on March 29. It will start the clock on two years period, during which to complete the most important negotiation for a generation.
Britain voted 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23. The D-day comes more than 40 years after the Britain joined the EU in 1973, but London has long been a somewhat reluctant member, with euroskeptic politicians railing against EU regulations.
The timing of Article 50 was up to Britain. Now, what happens next is up to the EU. European Commission, the executive arm of the bloc, said that the EU was ready to begin negotiations. Given the complexity of the issue, the entire process will prove to be an uphill battle for the negotiators to reach to mutually beneficial outcome.
British PM has until the end of 2018 to agree the terms of the breakup and try to win what she calls the “best possible” trade arrangement for the future. If she can’t secure an agreement, Britain will crash out of the EU.
But EU negotiators have already warned it would not be easy to agree on divorce terms. The agreement on a new relationship for the UK and the EU could take years longer. If the rest of the EU agrees, the two-year negotiating period can be extended, leaving Britain in the EU for a while longer.
Among the major sticky points are EU’s demand that Britain must pay divorce bill of up to 60 billion euros to cover EU staff pensions and other expenses, and the free movement of workers.
Although UK has not ruled out a payment, there is going to be much haggling over the size of the bill. Britain wants to maintain free trade in goods and services with the bloc, without accepting the EU’s core principle of free movement of workers. If Britain imposes limits on immigration, it will have to leave the EU’s single market and customs union. That will certainly create trade barriers.
EU will not allow Britain an easy ride as it tries to safeguard the stability and the commitment of its 27 remaining member states at a time when the bloc is facing growing nationalism at home and meddling from Russia. EU officials have made it clear that British PM won’t be allowed to “cherry-pick” the best bits of EU membership. European leaders are wary that allowing generous terms of exit to May would encourage exit campaigners elsewhere.
But May has said “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain.” She is walking a tightrope with EU leaders. May campaigned to remain in the EU but must now navigate the exit. Also, the calls for a second independence referendum in Scotland intensify the pressure on her.
It’s a high-wire act for May. She must ensure a deal that works for every nation and region of the UK and indeed for all of Europe. British PM must also leave the door open to forge new partnership with rest of EU countries.