El Nino arriving too late to hurt India’s monsoon

Bloomberg

India’s monsoon may escape the effects of a possible El Nino event that can bring dry weather to the world’s top cotton grower and second-biggest wheat and sugar producer. “Mostly it may not have any impact on rains” because the El Nino probably won’t develop until later this year, said D.S. Pai, head of the long-range forecasting division of India Meteorological Department. “As of now it’s not indicating. There will be clarity when more information is available in April and May.”
Forecasters globally have been increasing odds that El Nino will develop this year as temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Nino “watch” on February 28, indicating the likelihood of the pattern forming this year is about 50 percent. Six climate models suggest thresholds may be reached by July. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center raised its odds to 50 percent by the end of the year, while Malaysia puts a 50 percent chance of development between September and November. The 2015-16 El Nino was the strongest since the record event of 1997-98.
A late El Nino may miss India’s monsoon season that runs from June through September, accounting for more than 70 percent of rain and watering more than half of all farmland.