Climate talk progress hinges on US polls

Even as the 12-day UN meeting in Marrakesh that has been tasked with

finishing the rulebook for the Paris Agreement got underway on Monday, all eyes are on the crucial US presidential elections. The fate of the climate talks largely hinges on the US polls. Climate negotiators are rooting for Republican Donald Trump’s defeat. His win could throw cold water on the efforts made in the fragile Paris pact and cripple its prospects.
“All the progress we’ve made on climate change is going to be on the ballot,” US President Barack Obama has warned. Obama had fast-tracked the signing of the Paris deal to ensure the US ratifies it before his presidency ends. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has pledged to carry forward Obama’s domestic
energy policies and international climate commitments. On the contrary, Trump — who has dubbed global warming as a “hoax” — has clearly said that he would cancel the Paris agreement, expand offshore drilling and scrap the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan.
The Paris accord has been ratified by 97 parties, including the US, till now — representing 67.5% of world’s greenhouse gas emissions. The US accounts for 13% of these emissions. If Trump withdraws from the agreement, it would fall just short of the 55% emission threshold to implement it. It is not that the threshold can’t be achieved without the US. But an American departure would send a wrong signal that others can also back off, without any legal or diplomatic ramification. And this would be damaging to the lasting impact of the deal. “I see the real danger of Trump being elected as jeopardizing the enormous change in the psychology on climate change,” points out Louise van Schaik, an expert in multilateral negotiations at the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands.
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris deal will also tarnish the image of the US which hitherto has been leading the international community in anti-pollution fight. Moreover, it will undo the economic opportunities the pact creates for the US in clean
energy utilization. The US has a lot to gain from staying in the deal against the backdrop of growing extreme weather patterns like floods and hurricanes that’s been
hitting the country with alarming frequency.
The world temperatures have reached record high in the past 16 months. We have entered a new era of climate change with carbon dioxide levels now permanently above 400 parts per million. The impending warming of 3.4 degrees
Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels, needs to be stopped to save humanity. The world requires $50 trillion of investment in power networks and energy
efficiency to check emissions.
The Marrakesh meeting has to work hard to solve the contentious issues of measuring and monitoring CO2 emissions of different nations and providing
finances for climate change mitigation in such a way that it helps both the giver and the recipient. The Paris agreement aims to cap global warming at under
2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius — a formidable challenge. This will need additional and concrete action and this action has to come very, very fast.
The next US President has to set a precedent to the world of a green future. The fact that environment catastrophe is staring us in the face remains as real as
reality can be. It doesn’t change with Trump’s rhetorics. Scienctific evidence is what the US needs to trust, not Trump!