Germany still years away from replacing Russian gas capacity

Bloomberg

Germany is still years from substituting Russian pipeline gas imports with liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities, according to estimates by the country’s Economy Ministry.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Bloomberg last week that the country had learned its lesson from being too dependent on Russia. The goal now was to build capacity that gives Germany the chance to have as much gas as it had before the invasion without importing from Russia, he said.
But it will take until 2026 for Germany to install 56 billion cubic meters of domestic LNG import capacity, about the same it imported by pipe from Russia in 2021, the Economy Ministry wrote in an answer to a set of questions by the Left Party. By 2030 those capacities are seen at 76.5 billion cubic meters, or about 80% of total German gas consumption in 2021.
So far, Germany has managed to reduce its reliance on Russia by cutting overall consumption, importing LNG via neighbouring European countries and increasing pipeline deliveries from Norway and the Netherlands. Some of that supply is uncertain amid plans to shut down the key Groningen gas field next year.
Europe’s largest economy hasn’t received Russian deliveries since September but is unlikely to face gas shortages in coming months — an impressive feat considering that, before the invasion of Ukraine, Germany depended on Moscow for 52% of its imports.
“The truth is, there won’t be enough in the next three to four years of LNG production capacity in the world to meet the growing demand,” Christian Leye, a Left Party lawmaker told Bloomberg. “So the unspoken strategy is that Germany will continue to pay crazy prices and other, less rich countries go empty-handed.”
A spokesperson for the Economy Ministry declined to comment further on the document.
Germany looks set to survive this winter without the Russian gas it used to depend on. The question now is whether it can plug the gap in coming winters, too — and at what price.

“The biggest challenge for Germany in the next couple of years is attracting LNG as a base load source,” said Simone Turri, head of western European structured trading at Swiss energy trader MET International. “Building up LNG terminals without having new contracts coming in doesn’t solve the problem.”
Russia’s loss has been a big gain for Norway and the Netherlands, with gas exports from the latter two surging. Yet there already are warnings that the flush times won’t last.
Norway is now Germany’s largest supplier at 33% after almost tripling its total natural gas exports last year. Oslo expects flows to remain steady for the next four to five years but then gradually taper as supplies are drained.
The Netherlands tripled its monthly share of Germany’s imports by December, according to the energy lobby group BDEW. Most of that, though, was extracted from its key Groningen gas field, which is scheduled for shutdown by next year because production triggered hundreds of earthquakes.