Lula’s support puts first-round win back in play, DataFolha says

Bloomberg

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is gaining momentum 10 days before Brazil’s presidential election, nearing the simple majority needed to give him a first-round victory on October 2, a new DataFolha poll shows.
Leftist challenger Lula would take 47% of the first-round vote, up from 45% a week ago, with the increase falling inside the poll’s two-point margin of error. Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro held steady at 33%.
A candidate needs to break the threshold of 50% of valid votes to clinch a first-round victory, otherwise the front-runners square off again on Oct. 30.
Trying undercut each other’s support, the current and former president are crisscrossing the nation making their final pitches. There is little room to change hearts and minds. Most voters picked their candidate long ago, and just a tiny fraction — 2% — identify as undecided.
Other surveys this week also raised the prospect of Lula, 76, wining outright on the first ballot. The latest release from DataFolha, Brazil’s most influential polling firm, widened its sample size to increase accuracy.
Some political observers caution that the race is likely tighter than polls suggest: Voters may be reluctant to openly state they’re backing Bolsonaro, 67, a right-wing nationalist known for his crass style and botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
DataFolha interviewed 6,754 people in person throughout the country between Sept. 20 and September 22.