Cyber nukes could be the path to digital peace

Two world wars had raged within three decades, costing over 100 million lives, when history’s most destructive weapon was deployed in August 1945. The horrific prospect of nuclear-fuelled, mutually assured destruction has kept superpowers in check since then, and a cyber-equivalent may be just what’s needed as global hostilities turn
digital.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has been accompanied by a barrage of cyber-attacks on the nation’s power and communications infrastructure, reminding us that the Kremlin views its digital arsenal as being no less important than its aging stock of tanks and missiles. Yet none of these incursions dealt a knock-out blow. One explanation is that Kyiv built up its defenses over the past decade and is now a world leader at fending off such online offensives.
Yet there’s also a sense that maybe Moscow has been holding back. Perhaps President Vladimir Putin has something bigger planned, goes that line of thought, with a devastating digital weapon we’ve yet to see. He’s already issued veiled threats about deploying nuclear weapons as the conflict continues. The White House is certainly cautious about cyber warfare, and has warned that the US itself is under threat due to its ongoing support for Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
There’s currently as many as nine members of the “nuclear club” — including those confirmed as having such weapons, and others presumed to be in possession of them. But there are only three countries thatcan be considered to be cyber superpowers. Among them, China has shown itself to be a proficient and aggressive hacker, but as yet hasn’t demonstrated much evidence that it’s intent on outright destruction. Most attacks, widely believed to have Beijing’s implicit or explicit approval, have been focused on security or industrial secrets. A few have had economic motives, such as ransomware. Beijing has denied allegations of hacking.
Russia’s prowess is known, and legendary. Under Moscow’s guidance, or at least with its consent, cyber gangs have unleashed malware that brought pipelines to a halt, released reams of sensitive data, and caused other types of widespread and malicious damage. The 2020 SolarWinds attack, directed by Russian agencies, breached numerous US government departments and caused up to $100 billion in damage.
Then there’s the US. The narrative on Washington-led offensives differs from those carried out by China and Russia. One reason is that US agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Justice Department, regularly publicise attacks from overseas, perhaps as a means to gin up budgetary support and to show they’re hard at work. Beijing and Moscow, on the other hand, don’t tend to admit being a victim and generally keep such breaches to themselves.
While damaging, nothing we’ve seen so far amounts to all-out destruction. They are the digital equivalent of conventional weaponry. We still need to worry because these three cyber superpowers along with their allies — including North Korea on one side and the UK and Australia on the other — are focused on developing even more powerful cyber arms. Canberra last month outlined a historic $7.5 billion 10-year budget to boost Australia’s capabilities, which will include offensive tools aimed squarely at China.

—Bloomberg