Scotland’s future casts shadow over Johnson’s election win

Bloomberg

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is celebrating triumphant early results in UK elections, but he faces trouble ahead with Scotland cementing support for its independence movement.
In a key set of local and national votes, Johnson’s ruling Conservatives tightened their grip on the pro-Brexit former industrial heartlands of northern England. They took the parliamentary seat of Hartlepool, which overwhelmingly backed leaving the EU, from the opposition Labour Party for the first time since the electoral district was created in 1974.
Tories hailed that result as evidence that Johnson has permanently changed the British political landscape, and that recent squalls over his expenses and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic didn’t matter to ordinary voters.
Speaking to reporters in Hartlepool, Johnson said the win showed the electorate saw that the Conservatives “did get Brexit done” and would continue the vaccine rollout and
ensure a strong economic recovery. “There is genius and talent and enthusiasm and flair everywhere in the country, but opportunity is not evenly distributed and that’s what I’m trying to change,” Johnson said, re-stating his longstanding pledge to “level up” disadvantaged regions of the country.
But north of the border in Scotland, the prime minister is far less popular. Instead of a Tory surge, a pro-independence movement led by the dominant Scottish National Party of Nicola Sturgeon continued to hold sway.
She is pushing for a new mandate to call a referendum on whether Scotland should break away from the rest of the UK, and wants a clear majority in the Scottish Parliament to pressure Johnson to grant one.
In an interview with the Telegraph, Johnson said he will “see what happens” in the elections but reinforced his opposition to a new referendum on Scottish independence. “I think a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless,” he said. The outcome of the vote in Scotland remained on a knife edge, with the SNP hoping to clinch at least 65 of the 129 seats. Sturgeon said that while her party was on course to secure a fourth term in power, it was always a “very long shot” to get a majority because of Scotland’s electoral system.
The final result hinges on nine marginal constituency seats the SNP needs to win, according to John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow. The SNP had won three of those, one of them by a mere 170 votes. It hadn’t managed to oust the Conservatives or Labour in four others, making a majority far less likely.
Results are spread over two days because of the impact of the pandemic, and the final outcome was not expected until late on Saturday. What will only be clear then is whether there’s been the jump in support for the pro-independence Green Party that polls predicted. That would guarantee a majority in the Edinburgh legislature for a vote on breaking away from the rest of the UK and escalate the standoff with London over Scotland’s constitutional future.