A polluter’s easy path to zero emissions club

Suddenly, it seems all the world is heading to zero. Just a month after Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2060, the leaders of Japan and South Korea pledged to hit the same target 10 years sooner. The European Union and UK have already put their 2050 pledges into law. In total, countries accounting for about 56% of the world’s emissions have now announced or are investigating targets to eliminate their emissions by mid-century.
Who’s next?
Looking down the list of the world’s major emitters, you might think we’ve hit a roadblock. Most of those remaining are major exporters of fossil fuels, which you’d expect to be late to the zero-emissions party. Of the main exceptions, India has for decades vocally resisted efforts to cap its ability to pollute until it’s wealthier, and the status of the US is likely to be uncertain until the dust settles on the presidential election.
One major economy is in a different place, though: Brazil. Although the country has never promised to zero out its emissions — and is unlikely to do so under its populist president, Jair Bolsonaro — it would find that path far easier than most.
Brazil’s first advantage is that its electricity system was largely decarbonised long ago. Thanks to its vast river systems, the country is the most hydro-powered major economy on the planet, with about 64% of electricity generation coming from its dams. Wind, solar and nuclear account for another 21% of the total, leaving fossil fuels with a scant 15%.
Even that small slice should be easier to eliminate than in many other countries. Brazil’s ample hydro endowment means it’s unusually well-placed to manage peaks and troughs in electricity demand in a 100% renewable system, and the costs of building new wind farms from scratch are already lower than those of fueling and maintaining existing gas and coal power stations. Dams, like fossil-fired generators (but unlike wind, solar and nuclear), can be switched on and off depending on when they’re needed. Where excess solar generation is available in the middle of the day, they can even pump water uphill to be released again during the evening peak.
Industry will also be simpler to zero out. One of the challenges emerging economies face is that development in this sector is uniquely carbon-intensive. On-site emissions from China’s industrial companies alone accounts for about 8% of global fossil pollution.

—Bloomberg