Winter is coming for Boris Johnson

Winter is coming, but which one? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged last week that there are two possible scenarios: a mild season on the coronavirus front or a viral blizzard. He’d like Britons to start investing, spending and moving around as if the end of 2020 will be benign. He has promised that the government will, however, be ready for the other eventuality too.
Politically, it’s an appealing stance. It allows Johnson to claim he is helping to reopen the economy and save jobs, while also prioritising public health. It’s a difficult one for businesses and individuals, however.
It offers little concrete guidance on what to do
and raises the question of whether Johnson has learned from his previous pandemic mistakes.
And which scenario emerges matters a lot. Here’s what a “Good Winter” might look like:
It’s February 2021 and life has become more colorful again. The Genesis Reunion tour was great. You occasionally work from home, but you’re back to the office quite a lot; nothing beats the synaptic surges of workplace banter. Her feet are remembering what it’s like to wear shoes not designed for running, his collared shirts no longer look pointless in their dry cleaners’ plastic. Restaurants require bookings weeks in advance. You’ve started to say “crazy busy” again when friends ask how it’s going.
The virus hasn’t been banished, but you know the drill: mask up on transport, squirt the hand gel, respect private space, open the windows even if it’s cold. It’s not perfect — one sniffle and your entire household goes into isolation until a test is done — but compared to the mayhem in the US (now Joe Biden’s problem) or the dire events in Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil, Britons have it good.
If the Good Winter is what’s in store, Johnson will have won big. People will be relieved to have normalcy restored. Business confidence will grow, setting aside for now the question of Britain’s departure from the European Union’s single market at the end of the year.
It’s only when you consider what a “Bad Winter” looks like that the stakes become clearer:
Here we go again. British schools have closed once more, in what has been an exasperating stop-start year. Europe has said “no thank you” to flights from the UK. Every sniffle feels like a death sentence. Johnson’s promised 500,000 daily tests were delivered, but they’re not covering everyone who needs to test a seasonal symptom. Some people don’t bother anyhow, convinced they only have the regular flu.
You went back to the office, but it wasn’t the same. Pret was closed. Those purposeful blocks of glass and steel that make up the City’s landscape look forlorn.

—Bloomberg