Trump makes crucial 2020 bet on US states reopening

Bloomberg

President Donald Trump is facing a turning point in his bid for re-election, betting that a handful of Southern and Midwestern states can reopen their economies without triggering an even deeper public health crisis.
If it works out, Trump can claim he was right all along about quickly lifting stay-at-home restrictions that are damaging the economy. If it doesn’t and coronavirus cases spike, pollsters and political analysts say it’s Trump who will bear the blame — even after he tried to shield himself from fallout by putting governors in charge of the most critical decisions.
“It’s a gamble,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Florida-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. “If they start to do this and it comes back strong — in a way that everybody really sees it as coming back strong — in states like Florida, it’s much worse than it is right now, yeah, that’s going to be a big price to pay.”
The reopening gambit will play out over the coming weeks, as Texas, Georgia, Florida, Ohio and Missouri — all with Republican governors — prepare to ease restrictions to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The Trump administration said it’s trying to fast-track vaccine development, yet another high-risk move that — if it works — could pay political dividends.
Success — Americans back at work, dining in restaurants and a “packed house” at football stadiums, as he said — would bolster his favourite case for re-election: economic growth.
Trump promises a turnaround will take off in the second half of the year. “We built the greatest economy anywhere in the world. We’re going to build it again,” he said.
Yet public health experts warn that some of the states’ decisions are ill-advised and risk wider spread of the disease, more American deaths and the reimposition of stay-at-home rules — all political poison for Trump’s aspirations for a second term.
“A major resurgence of cases is well within the realms of what is possible” if states lift social distancing measures too early, said Theo Vos, an epidemiologist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
The institute’s projections are closely watched at the White House. IHME estimates that states risk a rebound of the outbreak if they ease social distancing measures before their rate of new infections falls to one in
1 million residents. Three states that have been most aggressive about reopening — Georgia, Texas and South Carolina — are not projected to hit that mark until mid-June at the earliest.
The president has already seen his approval ratings dive as the number of coronavirus infections in the US climbed past
1 million and deaths surpassed 60,000. Another surge could cement perceptions that Trump — who has agitated since March to lift social-distancing measures that have pushed more than 26.5 million people out of their jobs — cares more for the economy and his re-election than the health of American citizens.
Trump trails presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in key battleground states, including Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, recent public polls show.