Modi’s ‘stay at home’ call may deepen economic slowdown

Bloomberg

India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.
The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in an address, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.
“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”
Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.
“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd, the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.
The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.
In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus — cases of which are relatively low in India at about 300, compared with more than 260,000 infected people globally.

His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.
We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%, India economist Abhishek Gupta said.
“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”
Work From Home
While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.
“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.
As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.
Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

India’s most populous state announces relief
Bloomberg

India’s Uttar Pradesh state will pay workers to help them meet daily needs as the country tries to contain the spread of novel coronavirus, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said in a broadcast posted to his Twitter account.
Bordering the national capital of New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh is India’s most populous state with around 200 million inhabitants. It will distribute 1,000 rupees per month to over 3.5 million day laborers and constructions workers, Adityanath said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called for a so-called People’s Curfew for 14 hours on Sunday, urging India’s citizens to stay at home as much as possible. The government will announce support measures for virus-affected sectors of the economy as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India nears 300-mark.