Philippine central bank sees 50bps rate cuts ahead

Bloomberg

Philippine central bank Governor Benjamin Diokno said he expects to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year, with the timing dependent on economic data.
“Until the end of the year, it’s around 50 basis points,” Diokno said on Monday, when asked if he was open to lowering borrowing costs further. “If we do 50 basis points, we’ll make it clear that this is the end of the easing period for this year to give banks time to adjust.”
Philippine policy makers are monitoring inflation numbers due on Tuesday and economic growth data on Thursday, as well as signs of further escalations in US-China trade tensions, Diokno told Bloomberg in Manila.
“We’ll be guided by the widest available economic and market data,” he said.
BangkoSentralngPilipinas left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in June after a 25-basis-point cut in May as it takes what it calls a prudent approach to easing monetary policy. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the bank will cut rates by another 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs last week.
Diokno said inflation will average 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2020, down from previous projections of 2.7% and 3%, respectively. July inflation likely slowed to 2.4%, according to a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists.
Diokno’s comments are “a very clear signal we haven’t seen before,” said Robert Dan Roces, an economist at Security Bank Corp. in Manila. “We have this expectation to pump-prime growth for the rest of the year.”
Inflation below the midpoint of the central bank’s 2%-4% target band and a stable currency give policy makers room to provide stimulus, after growth slowed to its weakest level in four years in the first quarter.
Subdued Inflation
Subdued consumer prices can boost private spending, which accounts for about 70% of the Philippine economy. Gross domestic product probably grew 5.9% in the second quarter, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.
Security Bank’s Roces, who forecasts a 25-basis-point rate cut Thursday, said a one-time reduction of a half-percentage-point could be on the table later if the BangkoSentral decides to keep policy unchanged this week.
“It’s better to have this guidance so markets will be prepared,” he said.
The peso fell as much as 0.8% against the dollar Monday, paring its year-to-date gain to 1.5%. The local currency is the third best performer in Asia this year, behind the baht and yen.