JPMorgan lending outlook suffers from Fed’s reversal

Bloomberg

JPMorgan Chase & Co was hit by the Federal Reserve’s about-face on interest rates in the second quarter, warning that lending income will fall in the second half.
The largest US bank cut its full-year outlook for net interest income — revenue from customers’ loan payments minus what the bank pays depositors — by $500 million.
NII accounted for about half the New York-based company’s revenue last year and has countered a slump in trading, which fell for a fourth-straight period in the second quarter.
JPMorgan joins rivals including Wells Fargo & Co in cutting the outlook for traditional lending businesses that have benefited from higher rates, which they passed on to borrowers while holding deposit rates low. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to a July cut in interest rates, citing a cooling global economy and trade friction.
It’s a reversal from the start of the year, when investors were betting the Fed would boost rates.
JPMorgan notched the highest profit in US banking history in 2018 with $32.5 billion, spurred in part by rising interest rates and the Trump administration’s corporate tax cuts.
The bank now sees net interest income at about $57.5 billion this year after saying in April it could increase to more than $58 billion.
Shares of the company, which climbed 17 percent this year through Monday, fell 1.4 percent in early New York trading.
Citigroup Inc said net interest revenue increased 2 percent in the second quarter, which was roughly in line with analysts’ average estimate. The bank left its full-year growth outlook for the figure unchanged at 4 percent.
JPMorgan’s revenue from stock and bond trading slipped 6 percent in the second quarter, excluding a one-time gain related to the initial public offering of Tradeweb Markets Inc. Analysts had expected a 5 percent drop.
Fees from underwriting stock and bond offerings and advising on mergers fell 14 percent to $1.85 billion.
Revenue from the corporate and investment bank slipped 3 percent from last year’s record to $9.6 billion as market uncertainty drove investors to the sidelines and damped corporate sentiment.
Non-interest expense rose by 2 percent to $16.3 billion in the quarter, less than the average analysts’ estimate of $16.4 billion.
The bank said in February that adjusted expenses for the full-year would rise to less than $66 billion from about $63 billion last year.
JPMorgan has been ramping up spending as it expands its consumer bank into new states for the first time in more than a decade, uses technology to transform how its corporate and investment bank does business, and constructs a new headquarters in New York.
The firm’s consumer bankers continue to outperform their Wall Street counterparts, posting a 22 percent increase in net income in the quarter. Dimon said the bank continues to see positive momentum with the US consumer, citing “healthy confidence levels, solid job creation and rising wages.”
The bank said while its rates trading business held up well during the quarter, there was reduced client activity in equity derivatives and weakness in the fixed-income EMEA business.