Irish border dispute fails to die down

Bloomberg

For UK Prime Minister Theresa May, the Irish border issue may resurface sooner than she imagined. In a deal agreed last month to unlock divorce talks with the European Union, May guaranteed no hard border will re-emerge on the island of Ireland after Brexit. If all else fails, Northern Ireland will play by the same EU rules that apply in the south. But she also promised to avoid barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, pledges that appear mutually exclusive.
While the agreement was designed to prevent a breakdown in talks, serious questions still need to be resolved, according to three people familiar with the EU side of the negotiations.
Different interpretations around the precise meaning of May’s commitments are starting to crystallize, according to one European diplomat, and flash points could become clear when the legal text that underpins last month’s accord is drafted early this year.
There are at least two areas of potential disagreement, according to the diplomat, who asked not to be identified as talks are ongoing. Supported by the EU, Ireland wants the broadest possible interpretation of May’s rule alignment pledge to cover as many sectors and goods as possible. The UK is seen as wanting the narrowest possible interpretation, limiting it to sectors such as agriculture and energy.
The EU and Ireland want the UK to set out how it will avoid a hard border if talks on a future trade relationship don’t deal with all the issues — they want that detail in the withdrawal agreement. It’s not clear the UK shares that view — May might say the fall-back measure should only be explored in depth if the future relationship negotiations don’t solve everything.
France in particular wants to see the UK’s granular proposals for avoiding a hard border and protecting the single market, according to the diplomat. Last week, Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator, said the agreement needs to be formalised with “rock solid guarantees,” while Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar warned there should be no “backsliding.”
The EU and UK are working on a withdrawal agreement that will formalize the terms of Britain’s exit from the bloc, legally reinforcing the Irish border agreement. That text will eventually become the accord that’s due to be signed off in October.
As the EU side expects only an outline agreement on the future trading relationship to be agreed by the time of the divorce in March 2019, it won’t be enough to rely on a future trade deal to solve the border issue. The UK still says it expects to have the trade deal ready to sign by the time it leaves — and hopes for a deal that will allow “frictionless” trade.
“We set out our commitment to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland in the joint report published with the Commission in December,” the Brexit Department said in a statement.
“We welcome the clear commitment from the European Council and European Commission to work with us on flexible and imaginative solutions to address the
island’s unique circumstances.” Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs said the government is “clear what was agreed in phase one guarantees: no return to the borders of the past in the event of a hard Brexit.”
One reason May is resisting the push for more detail is concern that it could rile her allies in the Democratic Unionist Party, the Northern Irish group that props her up in Westminster.