Split looms as S Africa’s ANC set to pick leader

Bloomberg

As delegates from South Africa’s ruling African National Congress gather this week to pick a new leader to succeed President Jacob Zuma, they face a challenge that’s threatening to overshadow the contest: to stop the party from splitting.
The likelihood of a breakup is probably the biggest in the ANC’s 105-year-old history, especially
if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the
president’s ex-wife and favoured
contestant, beats his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa, in the vote for party leader, according to analysts.
The winner will also be the ANC’s presidential candidate in national elections in 2019.
While both candidates have called for the ANC to remain united after the December 16-20 conference, they differ on what needs to be done to halt the slide in its support. Ramaphosa, 65, one of the wealthiest black South Africans, has pledged to revive the struggling economy and stamp out corruption, while former African Union Commission Chairwoman Dlamini-Zuma, 68, has echoed Zuma’s calls for “radical economic transformation” to place more wealth in the hands of the black majority.
“If a split were to happen, it would be led by people who support Ramaphosa in the event that he loses the ANC conference because their camp would have a better chance of winning over voters,” said Mpumelelo Mkhabela, a political analyst at the University of Pretoria’s Center of Governance Innovation. “It would be inconceivable for Ramaphosa to unite behind the vision of the people who are backing Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.”
With support for the ANC having already dipped to a record low in last year’s municipal elections, when it lost control of Pretoria, the capital, and the economic hub of Johannesburg, a breakaway could cost the party the outright majority it’s held since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994. The leadership race has been marred by violence, lawsuits and allegations of bribery,
and the announcement of the winner is unlikely to end the acrimony between the rival factions.
“It’s got to a point where I think there is a very significant likelihood of a split, but it just depends on the outcome of the election,” Mike Davies, the founder of political advisory company Kigoda Consulting, said by phone. “There has been such a breakdown of levels of trust and engagement within the party.”
Benedict Dube, a political analyst at the Xubera Institute for Research and Development in the port city of Durban, puts the odds of the ANC splitting at about 90 percent if Ramaphosa loses, but doesn’t anticipate a breakup if he wins. The Congress of South African Trade Unions, the nation’s largest labor group, and the South African Communist Party, which are currently part of the ANC-led ruling coalition and have endorsed Ramaphosa, are likely to drive the formation of a new political party if Dlamini-Zuma emerges victorious, he said.
Zuma’s administration has been ridden with scandals, including spending taxpayer money on upgrading his private home. In the latest episode, the High Court ordered National Prosecuting Authority head Shaun Abrahams to vacate his post and for Ramaphosa to appoint a new chief prosecutor because the president has a conflict of interest — the NPA is due to decide whether he must be charged for corruption. Zuma, 75, is appealing the decision.
Dlamini-Zuma probably wou-ldn’t strike out on her own should she lose because she’d find it difficult to garner much support due
to her close association with Zuma, according to Mkhabela.