Zero rates went from Japan exotica to global standard

Marking the 20th anniversary of zero interest rates in Japan ought to be an exercise in humility.
Like the eldest child of a large family, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was on its own for a while. Those that followed — the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB), to name but two — had it a bit easier. Some policy makers have acknowledged being too hard on Japan during its solo run. Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke came away from his turn in the barrel more sympathetic.
Reviewing Japan’s experience at the Brookings Institution in 2017, Bernanke graciously conceded he once thought the BOJ was too timid and, in retrospect, he was far too certain about what could be accomplished with rock-bottom borrowing costs.
What began as a distinctly Japanese response to the aftermath of a property bust has gone mainstream in the two decades since February 1999. Major central banks have been forced into actions that resemble or go beyond Japan’s path. Zero rates and other one-time oddities like negative rates and massive bond buying, known as quantitative easing, are now legit.
Several lessons emerge. Zero rates may be necessary but not sufficient to tackle deflation or a severe economic slump. The practice also works best when joined with fiscal activism — as Bernanke recommended — and efforts to shore up banks. The approach could be deployed to combat the next recession, whenever it comes, or the next deflationary scare. With inflation retreating in the world’s major economies, that’s not a purely academic issue.
The secondary theme of this 20-year story is the incomplete perception of Japan. The country’s challenges tend to be conflated with stasis, which is a mistake. Within the decades bracketed by this anniversary, policy dialed up and down. In 2000, the BOJ raised its benchmark rate, an unforced error that had to be unwound
when the world entered a slowdown early the following year.
Quantitative easing ensued.
Arguably, Japan didn’t get really aggressive and bold until 2013. In a few short months, the inflation target was set at 2 percent; the recently elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appointed Haruhiko Kuroda as BOJ governor; and the new central bank chief embarked on a dramatic program of fresh stimulus.
While inflation hasn’t reached the 2 percent target, it’s (for now) a problem of low inflation, not deflation.
Japan’s economic run the past few years has been pretty good. True, inflation is now going the wrong way from 2 percent and the BOJ got some stick last week for trimming its projections. But inflation is below target in most large economies. It’s a difference of degree, not of kind.
—Bloomberg