Will 35,000 be enough for HSBC?

HSBC Holdings Plc had little choice. It’s a measure of how much the world has changed that the 35,000 job cuts it announced in February, a plan that looked like radical surgery at the time, are now almost certainly inadequate. The economic damage wreaked by Covid-19 and the political quagmire into which the bank has sunk over its support for a national security law in Hong Kong meant that a return to retrenchment was inevitable sooner rather than later.
The London-based bank has restarted its cost reduction program, according to a memo from Chief Executive Officer Noel Quinn, having placed it on pause in March as the pandemic spread. The plan calls for HSBC to eliminate those jobs over three years and shed $100 billion in risk-weighted assets by shrinking its underperforming US operations and European businesses and cutting back on its investment bank.
Few expected HSBC to hold out indefinitely. The longer the virus lasts, the more bad loans will accumulate and the heavier will weigh its network of 235,000 employees across 64 countries. The bank, a major player in trade finance, warned in February that it could face more credit losses from disruption to supply chains.
Since then, worsening geopolitical tensions between China and the US have added a further negative. A strong first quarter for fixed-income and foreign-exchange trading will be hard to sustain. Improving its paltry 1.9% return on equity is a priority.
JPMorgan Chase & Co, comparable in size with a workforce of 257,000, has an ROE of 15%.
The controversy over Hong Kong provides an added incentive for HSBC to push ahead with its transformation. The bank has upset the US and the UK by its stance on the security bill, with HSBC’s Asia head Peter Wong signing a petition this month in support of the legislation that China is imposing on the former British colony. Hong Kong contributes 54% of profit and a third of global revenue. Most of the job cuts are targeted at less profitable or money-losing units in other regions. HSBC has made its choice and may as well follow through: Expect an acceleration of the “pivot to Asia” begun under Quinn’s predecessor Stuart Gulliver five years ago.
Granted, HSBC cannot afford to give up its global footprint or alienate Washington. Its status as a dollar-clearing bank is valuable, and many of China’s biggest banks use HSBC’s system to trade in the US currency.
Multinational clients may be less inclined to stick with HSBC for European and US business as it scales back. At the same time, it has an opportunity to strengthen its hold as a corporate bank for multinationals operating in China.
Challenges remain even in the market on which HSBC has bet its future. The bank is still a target of suspicion in China after providing US prosecutors with information that led to the arrest of Huawei Technologies Co’s chief financial officer in late 2018. Having sided with authorities over the security bill, it also risks alienating a large part of its customer base in Hong Kong.

—Bloomberg