Ukraine strategy targets Russian army’s lifelines in Kherson

Bloomberg

For weeks now, Ukrainian forces have methodically targeted supply lines of Russian troops occupying the strategically important region and city of Kherson. That doesn’t mean they may be close to launching a large-scale offensive to take it back.
Outgunned despite supplies of new weapons from its US and European allies, Ukraine’s military has so far avoided a major assault on the southern city that straddles the Dnipro river and was among the first to fall to Russia’s invasion. Instead, they’ve focused on a policy of attrition, deploying US-supplied HIMARS artillery missiles and other long-range weapons to blow up bridges used to resupply Russian troops dug in on Kherson’s west bank.
Ukraine is likely preparing a counteroffensive in the south but will only strike if and when it’s confident of making progress, and Russia’s logistics and supply lines have been further hit, two Western officials familiar with the matter said. The Ukrainian military is cautious as there’s a risk of becoming exposed once it advances, they said.
Nearly six months into the war, Russia’s campaign to seize full control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region is making slow headway, while the intensifying Ukrainian pressure on Kherson has forced the Kremlin to divert troops to the south to shore up its positions. The strategy of drawing in and cutting off Russian troops on the city’s west bank may presage weeks or even months of positional attacks to wear down occupying forces in Kherson, rather than an outright assault.
There’s “a chance” Ukraine will reclaim Kherson in a couple of months, though it’s unlikely to be sooner, Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in an August 10 interview. The war may go on until at least New Year and probably to next summer to achieve the “complete liberation” of Ukrainian territory, he said.
Blasts in Crimea, which President Vladimir Putin annexed in 2014, are adding to the Kremlin’s security concerns.
The Defense Ministry in Moscow blamed sabotage for explosions Tuesday at an ammunition depot on the Black Sea peninsula near Dzhankoi, a week after blasts destroyed nine fighter aircraft at a Crimean airbase used to support Russia’s invasion. Ukrainian officials haven’t claimed direct responsibility for the incidents, while describing them as just the beginning of efforts to reclaim Crimea.