Soleimani killing leaves Trump’s Middle East strategy in tatters

Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump and his top aides spent the weekend arguing that the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani would deter future attacks and make the Middle East safer.
Instead, US policy in the region seems to be going in the opposite direction of what Trump has long promised — with more US troops going in, not fewer; an Iran defiant, not cowed and broken by sanctions; and regional allies giving only lukewarm support to Trump’s airstrike instead of rallying around it.
Economic costs of the strike are also mounting: oil surged above $70 a barrel on Monday and equities around the world extended losses. Havens climbed, with gold rising to the highest in more than six years.
The political backlash came quickly, as the US-led coalition against IS was forced to suspend operations and Iraq’s parliament called for US troops to withdraw.
Trump responded by saying Iraq could face sanctions and would have to “reimburse” America. Iran said it would abandon limits on uranium enrichment put in place as part of a 2015 nuclear agreement that Trump abandoned in 2018.
US actions have “made an already volatile situation much more dangerous,” said retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities who favors a US troop withdrawal from Iraq. “If you paid any attention to Iran in the last 40 years you know they will never buckle to that kind of pressure. It’s just the opposite.”
The strike on Soleimani appeared to unite Iranians after months of protests against their own government, with hundreds of thousands turning out to mourn a military chief who had made their nation — battered by US economic sanctions — appear strong by giving Tehran leverage in conflicts from Syria to Yemen. Iran has vowed revenge, and allies including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that they’d now seek to drive out the more than 50,000 US troops from the region.
“It united most political forces in Iraq against the US,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. “The Trump administration monstrously miscalculated by playing into Iran’s hands.”
The fight against IS was immediately hampered, with the US-led coalition saying it would suspend operations in Iraq to focus on protecting bases that have come under attack. Threats from Iran-backed militias have previously forced staff drawdowns in US diplomatic missions across the country.
Iraq serves as the home base for operations against IS. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the US wouldn’t leave unless it got paid back for the “billions” spent on an air base there. “If they do ask us to leave, if we don’t do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever,” he said. “It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame.”
It’s unlikely US troops will leave Iraq anytime soon, but the vote was damning for Trump and US plans for the region.